航运衍生品数据日报-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the market balance will shift towards shippers, with freight rates continuously falling, and supply chain optimization and data - driven procurement becoming key opportunities [6] - In November, the market demand remains healthy despite the end of the pre - peak season booking rush, and the available capacity on US gateway routes has increased by 10 - 15%. The overall TPBB route capacity is expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88% [6] - The spot prices of different airlines show obvious differentiation, and the key influencing factors for the market are the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the sustainability of airline strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [8] - In the short term, macro - level positives, capacity control, and multiple price - support expectations will still support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are falsified, the main contracts are likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1495, with a decline of 3.59% compared to the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1058, with an increase of 3.60% [4] - Among different routes, SCFI - US West decreased by 16.43%, SCFIS - US West increased by 10.02%, SCFI - US East decreased by 17.16%, SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 1.56%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe increased by 24.50%, and SCFI - Mediterranean increased by 2.32% [4] 3.2 Shipping Derivative Contracts - Contract prices show differentiation. For example, the EC2506 contract increased by 2.06%, the EC2608 contract increased by 3.33%, the EC2610 contract increased by 0.30%, the EC2512 contract decreased by 1.81%, the EC2602 contract increased by 5.33%, and the EC2604 contract increased by 1.86% [5] - Contract positions also changed. For example, the EC2606 position decreased by 23, the EC2608 position decreased by 73, the EC2610 position increased by 122, the EC2512 position decreased by 1475, the EC2602 position increased by 4654, and the EC2604 position increased by 279 [5] - The monthly spreads also changed. The 12 - 02 monthly spread decreased by 117.7, the 12 - 04 monthly spread decreased by 53.8, and the 02 - 04 monthly spread increased by 63.9 [5] 3.3 Industry News and Market Analysis - CMA believes that no route can replace the Suez Canal, and it will continue to operate through the Suez Canal and plans to increase voyages through it in the future [6] - Maersk is shifting its strategy, focusing on price wars and a service - premium strategy [6] - Maersk's CEO Vincent is optimistic about returning to the Red Sea and believes that the supply chain will fundamentally change due to Trump's tariffs [6] 3.4 Market Strategy - The overall strategy is to wait and see [9] - For investors, it is recommended to buy on dips for the main contracts, and closely monitor the suspension of voyages and airline loading rates [8]