集运日报：现货指数大涨带动远月合约，风险偏好者已建议提前布局02合约，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot index's sharp rise drives the far - month contracts. Risk - preferring investors are advised to pre - layout the 02 contract and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1504.80 points, up 24.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1329.71 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, down 4.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1349.1 points, down 7.14% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1495.10 points, down 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1323 USD/TEU, down 1.6% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2212 USD/FEU, down 16.4% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, up 3.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 814.14 points, up 5.4% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The initial value of the US S&P Global services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the initial value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the initial value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3]. - The initial value of the euro - zone manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the initial value of the services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the initial value of the composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The euro - zone Sentix investor confidence index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2]. Contract Information - On November 11, the main contract 2512 closed at 1746.1, down 1.87%, with a trading volume of 32,200 lots and an open interest of 25,200 lots, a decrease of 1475 lots from the previous day [3]. - The trading limits of contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The main contract retraces while the far - month contracts are strong. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try long positions lightly in the 1550 - 1600 range of the EC2602 contract, focus on the spot trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4].