瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 12, the closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1219.0, down 1.85%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1540, equivalent to 1320 on the futures market. Macroscopically, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a guidance on promoting new energy consumption and regulation. Fundamentally, the mine's operating rate has declined for three consecutive weeks due to safety inspections, with neutral inventory and mid - and downstream restocking, and the total inventory shows a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range oscillation, and investors should control risks [2]. - On November 12, the closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1689.5, down 1.89%. The third round of coke price increase has been implemented on the spot side. Macroscopically, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the pig iron output continued its seasonal decline, with a pig iron output of 234.22 (-2.14) million tons, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was -22 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range oscillation, and investors should control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 1219.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00; J main contract closing price was 1689.50 yuan/ton, up 4.50. JM futures contract open interest was 929535.00 lots, down 39049.00; J futures contract open interest was 48913.00 lots, down 675.00. The net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts was -102322.00 lots, up 6426.00; the net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts was -4058.00 lots, up 225.00. JM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 60.50 yuan/ton, up 1.50; J 5 - 1 month contract spread was 146.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. Coking coal warehouse receipts were 200.00, unchanged; coke warehouse receipts were 2070.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal was 1111.00 yuan/ton, down 34.00; the price of Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1830.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 161.30 US dollars/wet ton, up 1.30; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1600.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00; the price of Grade 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1860.00, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1330.00, unchanged. JM main contract basis was 391.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00; J main contract basis was 140.50 yuan/ton, down 4.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.40 million tons, down 0.10; the refined coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants was 300.80 million tons, up 5.80. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, down 0.00; the raw coal output was 41150.50 million tons, up 2100.80. The import volume of coal and lignite was 4173.70 million tons, down 426.30; the daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 186.30, down 4.00. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 527.38 million tons, up 13.49; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 262.51 million tons, down 7.39. The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1070.02 million tons, up 17.32; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 58.30 million tons, down 1.57. The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 787.30 million tons, down 9.02; the inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 626.64 million tons, down 2.41. The available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises were 12.84 days, down 0.12; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 11.07 days, down 0.50 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00. The coking coal output was 3975.92 million tons, up 279.06; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.31%, down 1.13. The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was -22.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00. The coke output was 4255.60 million tons, down 4.10 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.15%, up 1.42; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.79%, down 0.80. The crude steel output was 7349.01 million tons, down 387.84. Steel mills in Xinjiang are gradually implementing winter maintenance and production cuts. It is estimated that the cumulative reduction of construction steel output in Xinjiang during the winter maintenance and production cut period will be about 2 million tons, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total construction steel output in Xinjiang in 2025 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The current RMB loan balance in China has reached 270 trillion yuan, and the stock of social financing scale has reached 437 trillion yuan. As the base increases, it is natural for the growth rate of financial aggregates to decline in the future, which is consistent with China's economic transformation from high - speed growth to high - quality development. The central bank will continue to optimize the intermediate variables of monetary policy and gradually淡化 its focus on quantitative targets. The People's Bank of China issued the third - quarter monetary policy implementation report on Tuesday. Compared with the second quarter, it specifically proposed to carry out counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments according to changes in the economic and financial situation, and said that it would closely monitor the monetary policy changes of major overseas central banks and continuously strengthen the analysis and monitoring of the supply and demand of bank system liquidity and changes in the financial market [2].