瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of an increase in urea production is high due to the recovery of previously shut - down devices and considering short - term enterprise malfunctions. The agricultural demand release has slowed down, and urea enterprises have made appropriate price concessions for transactions. The compound fertilizer's recent improvement in sales has led to a phased increase in its operating rate, and industrial demand has increased moderately. The compound fertilizer operating rate is expected to decline steadily or remain stable. The decline in urea enterprise inventory this week is mainly due to the implementation of new export policies, which have boosted the domestic trading atmosphere and improved the sales of urea enterprises. However, after the urea price increased, the new order transactions of factories slowed down, and the inventory of some enterprises rebounded. It is expected that urea enterprises will continue to reduce inventory slightly in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1625 - 1670 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1655 yuan/ton, with a change of 15 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 73 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest is 256,120 lots, with an increase of 2083 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 38,603; the exchange warehouse receipts are 6958 sheets, with an increase of 146 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, and Jiangsu remain unchanged at 1630 yuan/ton, 1620 yuan/ton, and 1610 yuan/ton respectively; the prices in Shandong and Anhui decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1600 yuan/ton and 1610 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 55 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and the Chinese main port are 357.5 US dollars/ton and 385 US dollars/ton respectively, remaining unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 7.9 million tons, with a decrease of 3.1 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.5781 billion tons, with an increase of 238 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 82.71%, with an increase of 2.39%; the daily urea output is 183,500 tons, with a decrease of 4400 tons. The urea export volume is 1.37 million tons, with an increase of 570,000 tons; the monthly urea output is 5.73867 million tons, with a decrease of 190,010 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 31.04%, remaining unchanged; the melamine operating rate is 53.2%, with an increase of 3.22%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 83 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is 165 yuan/ton, with an increase of 41 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, with a decrease of 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 27,000 tons, with an increase of 1600 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 12, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.4836 billion tons, a decrease of 945 million tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease. As of November 6, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 7.9 million tons, a decrease of 3.1 million tons, a 28.18% decrease. As of November 6, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 1.3545 billion tons, an increase of 392 million tons from the previous period, a 2.98% increase; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises is 82.71%, an increase of 2.39% from the previous period, and the upward trend continues [2].