瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of lead may increase but is difficult to rise significantly. On the supply side, the production growth of primary lead is limited due to many smelter overhauls, and the production increase of recycled lead is also restricted by environmental protection and raw - material supply. On the demand side, although the traditional consumption season has increased the demand for lead, the export of lead - acid batteries is under pressure, and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, so the growth of demand is also restricted. The lead ingot social inventory is at a relatively low level, but it may change with the increase of imported lead and potential growth of recycled lead production. The Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a volatile trend with limited upside, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,660 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quotation is 2,067 US dollars/ton, up 10.5 US dollars. The spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest is 127,374 lots, up 8,336 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 947 lots, down 3,596 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 24,686 tons, up 917 tons. The SHFE inventory is 38,582 tons, up 2,583 tons; the LME lead inventory is 226,725 tons, up 24,525 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,325 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,510 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 335 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 20.89 US dollars/ton, down 8.59 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,846 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The production capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 69.54%, down 3.45 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.83 tons, down 0.03 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the export volume of refined lead is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units. The average price of waste batteries is 10,021.43 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, with 2% antimony) is 19,575 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan third - level industry index of batteries and other batteries is 2,242.68 points, up 67.94 points. The monthly automobile production is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US private sector reduced an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25; Goldman Sachs estimated that the US non - farm payrolls decreased by about 50,000 in October. The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, and the House of Representatives will vote on it at 5 am Beijing time on Thursday. Russia is willing to participate in the preparation if the US restarts the proposal for a summit. India cut Russian crude oil orders in December and increased US crude oil purchases. Switzerland and the US may reach a 15% tariff agreement on Thursday or Friday. There are rifts within the UK ruling party, and the health minister is accused of plotting to oust the prime minister. Turkey seeks to sentence the mayor of Istanbul to hundreds of years in prison, and the Turkish benchmark stock index fell 3% [2]. 3.7 View Summary - On the supply side, the production growth of primary lead is limited due to overhauls, and the production increase of recycled lead is restricted by environmental protection and raw - material supply. On the demand side, although it is the traditional consumption season, the export of lead - acid batteries is under pressure, and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The lead ingot social inventory is at a relatively low level, but may change with the increase of imported lead and potential growth of recycled lead production. The Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a volatile trend with limited upside, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [2][3].