瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the HC2601 contract saw a reduction in positions and consolidation. The US announced the suspension of export - control penetration rules from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased, but the capacity utilization rate remained above 80%. The apparent demand dropped to around 3.15 million tons, and the inventory stopped falling and started to rise. Overall, the hot - rolled coil output was running at a high level, the apparent demand declined, and the fundamentals were mixed, causing the hot - rolled coil futures price to enter a range - bound consolidation. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that the centers of DIFF and DEA moved up. The recommended operation is to go long on dips, while paying attention to the rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Key Points Summarized by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,255 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the position volume was 1,311,464 lots, down 15,428 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 59,729 lots, up 12,683 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was - 12 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 125,543 tons, down 1,485 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 217 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou, it was 3,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan, it was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 55 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, up 3 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 148.9481 million tons, up 3.5557 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 361,500 tons, down 12,900 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2656 million tons, down 23,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 1.2 million tons, up 4,300 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, up 1.42 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, down 0.80 percentage points. The output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.1816 million tons, down 54,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 81.28%, down 1.37 percentage points. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 774,300 tons, down 2,300 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.3302 million tons, up 40,900 tons. The domestic crude - steel output was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.279 million tons, down 641,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.359 million vehicles, up 83,200 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 3.322 million vehicles, up 95,600 vehicles. The monthly output of air - conditioners was 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On the 11th, Guan Peng, the deputy director of the Investment Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that the commission had recommended 18 private investment projects to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, of which 14 had been issued and listed, with a total fund - raising of nearly 30 billion yuan. From January to October this year, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7%. In October, the monthly sales of new - energy vehicles exceeded 50% of the total new - vehicle sales for the first time [2].