美联储降息预期升温或支撑铜价：沪铜日评20251112-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Supply - Domestic and overseas copper mines face production disruptions, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand outlook for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, domestic processing fees for crude copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. [2] - Demand - The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week. [2] - Inventory - China's electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased compared to last week, while LME and COMEX copper inventories have increased. [2] - Market Outlook - With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in December and the end of the US federal government shutdown, the production disruptions in overseas copper mines may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Trading Volume Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On November 11, 2025, the closing price was 86,630, up 150 from the previous day. The trading volume was 74,639 hands, a decrease of 23,450. The open interest was 202,371 hands, a decrease of 1,756. The inventory was 42,964 tons, a decrease of 825. The Shanghai copper basis was 135, up 80. [2] - London Copper: On November 11, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,840, down 34.5. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 21.28, down 6.43, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 0, down 80.63. [2] - COMEX Copper: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.0635, up 0.11. The total inventory was 376,631, an increase of 7,262. [2] 3.2. Trading Strategy - Short - term traders are advised to go long on the main contract at low prices with a light position. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 87,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 10,800 - 11,200. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5. [2]