10月通胀数据点评：通胀正在温和回升

Group 1: Inflation Data - In October, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of food items in CPI recorded a decline of -2.9%, narrowing the drop by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous value[3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, showed a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI decreased by -2.1% year-on-year in October, improving by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[16] - From July to October, the PPI year-on-year declines were -3.6%, -2.9%, -2.3%, and -2.1%, indicating a trend of monthly recovery[4] - The overall industrial product PPI decreased by -2.7% from January to October[16] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The rise in both CPI and the narrowing decline in PPI suggest a potential need for further stimulus policies to boost domestic demand and sustain inflation recovery[5] - The PPI is expected to continue to recover, supported by policies aimed at reducing internal competition and improving upstream prices[5] - Monitoring marginal changes in indicators such as food prices, oil prices, and coal prices is recommended[5] Group 4: Risks - Risks include potential underperformance in consumer recovery, unexpected economic recession, and unforeseen impacts from tariffs on related industries[20]