中泰期货原糖周报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, profit, price, and spread of logs. It indicates that the supply - side pressure is decreasing, the demand remains weak with the approaching off - season and wood blue - stain period. The price is under pressure, and the market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance in the future [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Log Overview - Supply - side: In September 2025, the number of arriving ships was 16, and the arrival volume was 53.1 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was about 200.13 million cubic meters, a 16.01% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the subsequent arrival will remain stable, and the supply - side pressure will decrease [7]. - Demand and Inventory - side: The weekly shipment volume and apparent demand show no significant improvement. The demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust due to the weak demand despite the decrease in arrivals this week [9]. - Price and Spread: The outer - market quotation has a slight adjustment, the spot price is under pressure, and the wood - block price is stable. The spread is relatively stable, and the basis has certain support [11][13]. - Cost and Profit: The import cost of logs is expected to decline, and the import profit is decreasing [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: The spot market price is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of the futures market are weakly oscillating, and it is expected to be under pressure in the short term [17]. 3.2 Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report presents the weekly balance sheet of logs from June 6, 2025, to November 7, 2025, including arrival numbers, arrival volumes, daily shipment volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and species, and the supply - demand difference [19]. 3.3 Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply - side: It includes the shipment volume of New Zealand logs, log imports, and imports by species [25][27][30]. - Demand - side: It involves the daily shipment volume of logs, the real - estate market, and downstream analysis such as wood - block price, profit, and downstream substitutes [34][36][41]. - Inventory - side: It includes inventory summaries, inventory by species, and inventory by region [58][60][66]. 3.4 Part 4: Cost and Profit - Log Import Cost and Profit: Analyzes the import cost and profit of logs [72]. - Log Delivery Profit: Analyzes the delivery profit of logs [77]. 3.5 Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - Log Outer - market Quotation: Analyzes the outer - market quotation of logs [82]. - Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Prices: Presents the seasonal price trends of radiation pine and spruce [85]. - Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Spreads: Analyzes the seasonal spread trends of radiation pine and spruce [98]. - Basis between Radiation Pine and LG: Analyzes the basis between radiation pine and LG [104]. - Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread of LG Main Contracts: Presents the seasonal chart and inter - month spread of LG main contracts [106].