铝价持续走强

1. Core Views - Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper oscillated around 86,700 yuan. The weak US dollar recently is favorable for copper prices. The main contract twice failed to break through the 87,000 yuan mark, showing some pressure. Monitor the multi - short game at this level [7]. - Shanghai Aluminum increased in volume and price, especially in the afternoon. The main contract broke through the November 2024 high and approached 22,000 yuan. Despite the strong price, the spot discounts of both Shanghai and LME Aluminum continued to decline, indicating that although inventory is low, the spot is not in short supply. The short - term rise may be due to low valuation and expected supply reduction and demand increase overseas. Pay attention to the support at the 5 - day moving average [8]. - Shanghai Nickel decreased in volume and price, with the main contract breaking below 119,000 yuan. Amid the strong performance of the non - ferrous sector, the weak nickel price reflects its fundamental weakness. Technically, watch the support at the June low [9]. 2. Industry Dynamics - Citi predicts that the average copper price will reach $12,000 per ton by the second quarter of 2026, with an optimistic estimate of $14,000 per ton [11]. - On November 10, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 616,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last Thursday [12]. - On November 12, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 118,400 - 122,500 yuan per ton, with an average price of 120,450 yuan per ton, a decrease of 850 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 3,700 yuan per ton, an increase of 100 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The premium range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 to 300 yuan per ton [13]. 3. Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, and month - to - month spread [14][15][16]. Aluminum - The report presents charts of aluminum basis, month - to - month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - The report shows charts of nickel basis, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, month - to - month spread, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][43].