Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Rubber: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. The price center of the contract slightly moved up to around 15,200 yuan/ton, closing with a 0.56% increase at 15,220 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 80 yuan/ton. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market has returned to a market dominated by supply - and - demand fundamentals [6]. - Methanol: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating stably, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 2,117 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,084 yuan/ton, closing with a 0.67% increase at 2,108 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 103 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic methanol futures are dominated by weak supply - and - demand fundamentals [6]. - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 472.2 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 464.9 yuan/barrel, closing with a 1.58% increase at 469.1 yuan/barrel. The sharp rise in European diesel prices and the increasing expectation of winter heating demand have led to a recovery of optimism in the oil market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a 0.40% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.74% to 67,800 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 0.60% to 381,700 tons. In the week ending November 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a 0.77 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 7.03 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.51 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.5% and 3% and year - on - year increases of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.2% and 12.4%. In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000, and it is expected that the annual sales will exceed one million and may even reach 1.1 million [9][10]. - Methanol: In the week ending November 7, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.63%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.75%, a month - on - month increase of 4.25%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.9921 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40,900 tons, and a significant increase of 96,300 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid decreased week - on - week, while the MTBE operating rate increased slightly. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 113 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 238 yuan/ton. The total methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2861 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,100 tons, and a significant increase of 251,800 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory was 386,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47,000 tons, and a significant decrease of 34,900 tons compared with the same period last year [11][12]. - Crude Oil: In the week ending October 31, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 414, a week - on - week decrease of 6 and a decrease of 65 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.651 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 1.51 million barrels per day, reaching a historical high. The commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 5.202 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.49 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, increased slightly week - on - week, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory also increased slightly. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 86.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5 percentage points. The average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil increased significantly week - on - week but decreased significantly compared with the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds decreased significantly week - on - week but increased significantly compared with the October average [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | 15,220 yuan/ton | +125 yuan/ton | - 520 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,080 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | 2,108 yuan/ton | +26 yuan/ton | - 28 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 429.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 469.1 yuan/barrel | +7.8 yuan/barrel | - 39.7 yuan/barrel | - 8.0 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report includes charts of rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19]. - Methanol: The report includes charts of methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][31]. - Crude Oil: The report includes charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [40][42][44].
偏多氛围回暖，能化震荡企稳
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-11-12 09:29