Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-12 09:55Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, profit, price, and other aspects of offset printing paper. It shows that the production of offset printing paper is expected to increase slightly next week, with stable demand and inventory likely to accumulate. The cost of offset printing paper has risen due to raw material price increases, and production profit is expected to decline. If the price increase is successfully implemented, it may offset the cost increase. In the short - term, the fundamentals show no significant changes. If the price increase is implemented, appropriate long positions can be established at low prices, but risk control should be noted. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - Supply - Demand - Inventory: Domestic production in the week of 2025/11/7 was 20.80 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.20 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 53.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The monthly import volume was 1.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79 million tons. The weekly apparent demand was 19.60 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.00 million tons. The monthly export volume was 5.60 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 million tons. Domestic demand was 84.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.84 million tons. Enterprise inventory, social inventory, and total spot inventory all increased, with the total inventory reaching 189.50 million tons. It is expected that the production of the double - offset paper industry will continue to increase, about 21.0 million tons next week, and the demand will remain stable, with inventory likely to accumulate [6]. - Price: The ex - factory delivery prices of major brands remained unchanged compared to the previous period, but were lower than the same period last year. It is reported that due to the increase in raw material prices, the intended price increase of double - offset paper is 100 yuan/ton, waiting for implementation. The market self - pick - up prices also remained unchanged compared to the previous period but were lower than the same period last year. The futures prices of OP2601 and OP2603 showed an upward trend compared to the previous period, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate or fluctuate strongly [8]. - Spread and Basis: The spread between ex - factory and self - pick - up prices remained stable, and the futures spread between 1 - 3 contracts was expected to remain stable. The basis of some brands was expected to weaken. Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching and auxiliary textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season [10]. - Cost and Profit: The raw material costs of major pulp types decreased compared to the same period last year but remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The total production cost decreased compared to the same period last year but remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The production profit decreased compared to the same period last year and is expected to decline mainly due to the increase in raw material prices and the difficulty in raising the price of finished products. If the price increase is successful, it may cover the cost increase [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the industrial chain, the spot price is stable, and transactions are based on rigid demand. In the short - term, the fundamentals show no significant changes. If the price increase is implemented, appropriate long positions can be established at low prices, but risk control should be noted [14]. Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet The balance sheet shows the monthly supply, demand, inventory, and other data of double - offset paper from 2024 to 2025. In 2025, the cumulative import volume, production, total supply, domestic demand, total demand, etc. showed different trends compared to 2024. For example, in January 2025, the cumulative import volume decreased by 18.05% year - on - year, and the production decreased by 10.87% year - on - year [16]. Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply - Production Situation: In 2025, a total of 140 million tons of cultural paper production capacity has been put into operation, and 225 million tons are yet to be put into operation, mostly in the third quarter. In 2026, the planned production capacity to be put into operation is 120 - 140 million tons. Major companies such as Nine Dragons Paper, Chenming Paper, and Sun Paper have new production capacity plans or capacity resumption plans [18]. Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost - Profit - Raw Material Cost: The raw material costs of major pulp types such as Ural Needle, Moon, and Goldfish decreased compared to the same period last year but remained unchanged compared to the previous period [12]. - Profit: The production profit decreased compared to the same period last year and is expected to decline mainly due to the increase in raw material prices and the difficulty in raising the price of finished products. If the price increase is successful, it may cover the cost increase [12]. Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - Spot Quotation: The ex - factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices of major brands remained unchanged compared to the previous period but were lower than the same period last year. It is reported that due to the increase in raw material prices, the intended price increase of double - offset paper is 100 yuan/ton, waiting for implementation [8]. - Futures - Spot Basis: The basis of some brands is expected to weaken [10]. - OP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - Month Spread: Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching and auxiliary textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season. The futures spread between 1 - 3 contracts is expected to remain stable [10].