Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-12 10:12Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost of stainless steel has decreased due to the decline in ferronickel prices, while the supply pressure is expected to increase as stainless steel mills are likely to increase production. However, the demand is weak, resulting in a slight increase in the national stainless - steel social inventory. Technically, the market shows a bearish atmosphere, and it is recommended to wait and see, with previous short positions exiting on dips and attention paid to the MA30 pressure [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,425 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 12 - 01 month contract spread is - 60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,058 lots, down 1,632 lots; the main contract position is 36,512 lots, down 1,909 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 71,436 tons, down 299 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SS main contract basis is 570 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 21,700 metal tons, down 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, up 211,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, down 10 yuan. The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, up 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 570,800 tons, down 10,000 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, up 4,000 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is - 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 26,200 units, up 1,000 units [2] Industry News - The US private - sector payroll positions decreased by an average of 11,250 per week in the four weeks ending October 25, with a total reduction of 45,000 in the month, the largest monthly decline since March 2023. The US small - business confidence index dropped to a six - month low in October. In the raw material end, the Philippines is entering the rainy season with lower nickel ore grades, causing a tight raw material inventory for domestic ferronickel plants, but the high - level production of Indonesian ferronickel and expected increase in its return to China lead to a significant decline in ferronickel prices [2]