尿素周报：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint of the Report - The bottom of the current urea price may gradually become clear. Although urea has rebounded recently, the strength is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. Low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. It is recommended to take profit on sold options and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium and long term [3][29] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - From late October to now, the urea price has rebounded from the bottom, which is essentially a rebound and repair under low valuation. The new round of export quotas has boosted market sentiment, and the spot market's low - price transactions have improved. However, domestic supply pressure still suppresses the bullish sentiment, so the rebound strength is limited [3][8][29] 2. Basis and Spread - After the previous continuous decline in urea prices, the spot sentiment has improved, especially after the issuance of export quotas, which has promoted a slight strengthening of the basis. On October 20, the basis in Shandong was - 50 yuan/ton, and on November 11, it was - 30 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread fluctuated. On October 20, the UR01 - 05 spread was - 75 yuan/ton, and on November 11, it was - 77 yuan/ton [9] 3. Supply - Side Analysis 3.1 Supply - The recent rebound in urea prices has slightly improved upstream profits, but they are still at a poor level, lower than the previous two years. Urea prices are still weak compared to coal prices. The upstream urea start - up has slightly increased. As of the week of November 6, the weekly urea start - up rate in China was 83.55%, a month - on - month increase of 2.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.92 percentage points. The gas - head start - up rate was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 2.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.09 percentage points. The weekly coal - head urea output was 1130000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 140000 tons. The estimated daily output is expected to remain at a high level of about 190000 - 200000 tons next week [11] 3.2 Inventory - Due to the continuous release of high supply, domestic urea inventory has always been at a high level in the past five years. Since June, there has been an obvious phenomenon of export container gathering at ports, which has alleviated the domestic supply - demand pressure to some extent. After the new round of export quotas, there may be another round of container gathering. As of the week of November 6, the weekly enterprise inventory of urea in China was 1342000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 170000 tons. The weekly port inventory was 205000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 66000 tons. The new round of export quotas and winter storage demand may reduce the inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter [16] 4. Demand - Side Analysis 4.1 Export - Since June, domestic urea exports have begun to relax, and the export volume has increased significantly. The new round of export quota is about 600000 tons, which will help alleviate the current domestic supply pressure. Even if the urea price drops again, it will probably stimulate the storage demand of enterprises, and there is support at the previous low price [20][22] 4.2 Domestic - The fourth quarter is the off - season for domestic demand, and the relatively concentrated demand is mainly winter storage demand. The current pattern of strong supply and weak demand may make storage enterprises relatively cautious. However, the supply - demand pressure has been reflected in the current urea price, and the price is at a low level. It is a good choice for storage enterprises to gradually build inventories at the current price. As of November 6, the weekly inventory of compound fertilizers was 630000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80000 tons. The weekly output was 1070000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 73000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 66000 tons. The weekly start - up rate of melamine was 52.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.27 percentage points [23] 5. Summary and Outlook - The market review is consistent with the previous content. The price bottom of urea may gradually become clear. It is recommended to take profit on sold options and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium and long term [29][30]