Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-12 10:06Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the tin price is expected to remain strong at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small - long position, paying attention to the 29 support level [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 292,440 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4,260 yuan/ton; the closing price of the December - January contract of Shanghai tin is - 380 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 190 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 36,695 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 515 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 40,779 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 4,387 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 232 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 139 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 3,015 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 tons [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 5,992 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 73 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin are 140 tons, with no change [3] - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 5,446 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 136 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 291,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,300 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 292,580 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4,250 yuan/ton [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 1,440 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 960 yuan/ton; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 85 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 51.67 US dollars/ton [3] - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 0.87 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 900 yuan/ton [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 275,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 900 yuan/ton; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 63.06 tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 188,330 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,040 yuan/ton; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.1093 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1448 million tons [3] - The export volume of tin - plated sheets is 0.1976 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.031 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - The Q3 monetary policy report of the People's Bank of China states that it is natural for the growth rate of financial aggregates to decline in the future, and a reasonable interest rate ratio relationship should be maintained [3] - ADP data shows that in the four weeks ending October 25, the number of private enterprise compensation positions in the US decreased by an average of 11,250 per week, with a total decrease of 45,000 jobs in the month, the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [3] - Indonesia exported 2,643.05 tons of refined tin in October, a year - on - year decrease of 53.89% [3] 7. Viewpoint Summary - In the macro - aspect, the number of private sector employees in the US ADP in October decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years. In the fundamental aspect, the first batch of reopened mines in Myanmar's Wa State are in the production - ramping - up period, and the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar in China is expected to increase steadily in the fourth quarter, but the increase is still limited [3] - The supply in Africa and Australia has declined more than expected, and Africa is about to enter the rainy season. The import of tin ore in September decreased month - on - month. The sharp decline in Indonesia's refined tin exports in October alleviates the previous concerns about supply growth [3] - In the smelting end, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, the operating rate remains at a low level, and the output of refined tin is still limited [3] - On the demand side, the tin price has been fluctuating recently. The downstream in the spot market mainly purchases at low prices, mostly for small - quantity replenishment and rigid - demand purchases. After the tin price rises, the market trading is cold [3] - The domestic inventory reduction is better than expected, the spot premium drops to 50 yuan/ton; the LME inventory increases slightly, and the spot premium remains stable [3]