Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-12 10:30Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is mediocre, the real estate sector is a drag, and policy support in the automotive and home appliance sectors brings some highlights. Downstream demand recovery is insufficient, the market mainly makes on - demand purchases at low prices, domestic inventory increases, and LME zinc destocking slows down. Technically, the long - position atmosphere slightly weakens, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,680 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quote is 3,069 US dollars/ton, down 16.5 US dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 227,385 lots, up 489 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 15,184 lots, down 222 lots; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 70,890 tons, up 372 tons; the SHFE inventory is 100,208 tons, down 3,208 tons; the LME inventory is 35,300 tons, up 400 tons [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,490 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the basis of the ZN main contract is - 70 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 117.04 US dollars/ton, down 59.51 US dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,340 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 16,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons; the global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons; zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [2] Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons; the social zinc inventory is 161,700 tons, down 100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales of galvanized sheets are 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 12.2%, down 0.03%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 12.2%, down 0.03%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.63%, up 0.12%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.93%, down 0.05% [2] Industry News - The Q3 monetary policy report of the People's Bank of China states that it is natural for the growth rate of financial aggregates to decline in the future, and a reasonable interest rate ratio relationship should be maintained. ADP data shows that in the four weeks ending October 25, the number of private - sector payroll positions in the US decreased by an average of 11,250 per week, with a total reduction of 45,000 jobs in the month, the largest monthly decline in employment since March 2023. The US small - business confidence index dropped to a six - month low in October due to deteriorating profitability and reduced economic optimism [2]