瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, the US corn harvest is nearly finished with high supply pressure, but the upcoming USDA report may show a lower yield estimate and the rise of soybeans and wheat provides support. In the domestic market, there is still selling pressure, but the slowdown of grain circulation and increased purchases by multiple entities may support prices. The corn market has shown a slightly stronger trend recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2][3] - For starch, the supply pressure increases with more new - season corn and rising industry operating rates. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, downstream demand is acceptable, and enterprise sales are smooth. The starch market has been oscillating and rising in tandem with the corn market recently, and short - term observation is recommended [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2177 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is - 74 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 963208 lots, the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 127577 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts are 66338 lots [2] - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2490 yuan/ton, the 1 - 3 monthly spread is - 3 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 235124 lots, the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 56909 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts are 12453 lots [2] 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 432 cents/bushel, the total position is 1543065 lots, and the non - commercial net long position is - 51186 lots [2] 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2255.1 yuan/ton, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2190 yuan/ton, the CIF price of imported corn is 2035.94 yuan/ton, and the international freight is 42 US dollars/ton [2] - Corn starch: The ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2510 yuan/ton, 2750 yuan/ton, and 2680 yuan/ton respectively [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Corn production: The predicted annual production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 427.11 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 32 million tons respectively [2] - Corn planting area: The predicted annual planting area in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China is 36.44 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 74.2 tons, at northern ports is 122 tons, and the deep - processing inventory is 279.5 tons [2] - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12.78 tons [2] - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3128.7 tons [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed: The monthly production is 3128.7 tons, and the sample feed corn inventory days are 24.88 days [2] - Deep - processing: The weekly consumption of corn is 138.18 tons, the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 66.79%, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 63.48% [2] - Processing profit: The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 36 yuan/ton, 104 yuan/ton, and 58 yuan/ton respectively [2] 3.7 Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 9.59%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.83%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options is 6.56% [2] 3.8 Industry News - As of November 9, the US corn harvest was 92% complete, up from 83% a week ago [2] - As of November 8, the planting of Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn was 47.7% complete, compared with 42.8% last week, 48.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 45.5% [2]