瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The SH2601 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with the range estimated to be around 2300 - 2410. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to rise quarter - on - quarter. Although the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories has decreased significantly, the pressure is still relatively high. The cost has increased due to the strong thermal coal price, and the chlor - alkali profit has narrowed. The decline in the alumina plant's operating load is not significant, and the supply of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is relatively loose with a stable market price. The current high basis of the main contract reflects the market's expectation of weak future supply and demand, which awaits verification [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of caustic soda is 2344 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan. The position of the main contract of caustic soda is 136,689 hands, an increase of 742 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 18,733 hands, a decrease of 8,515 hands. The trading volume of the main contract of caustic soda is 363,722 hands, an increase of 5,442 hands. The closing price of the January contract of caustic soda is 2344 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan, and the closing price of the May contract is 2505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan, and in Jiangsu is 930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2468.75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda is 125 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 656 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan, and in Jiangsu is 225 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan, and the spot price of alumina is 2795 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 31 to November 6, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.5% quarter - on - quarter to 84.8%. From November 1 to 7, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.61% quarter - on - quarter to 85.25%. From October 31 to November 6, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 0.04% quarter - on - quarter to 89.60%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.26% quarter - on - quarter to 68.06%. As of November 6, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 6.29% compared with last week to 414,800 tons. From October 31 to November 6, the weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased to 464 yuan/ton [3].