银河期货油脂日报-20251112

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures' Daily Report on Oils and Fats [1][2] - Report Date: November 12, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - Soybean Oil: The 2601 closing price was 8288, up 50. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8548, 8598, and 8458 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 310, 260, and 170 respectively, with no change in the basis [2]. - Palm Oil: The 2601 closing price was 8744, down 26. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8694, 8764, and 8854 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -50, 20, and 110 respectively, with no change in the basis [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: The 2601 closing price was 9840, up 65. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10190, 10340, and 10340 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 350, 500, and 500 respectively, with no change in the basis [2]. Month - to - Month Spreads - Soybean Oil: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread was 224, up 12 [2]. - Palm Oil: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread was -90, down 6 [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread was 450, up 24 [2]. Cross - Variety Spreads - For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was -456, up 76; the OI - Y spread was 1552, up 15; the OI - P spread was 1096, up 91; the oil - meal ratio was 2.71, up 0.01 [2]. Import Profits - The 24 - degree palm oil (from Malaysia & Indonesia) had a negative profit of -277, with a CNF price of 1057 in December. The Rotterdam rapeseed oil had a negative profit of -913, with a FOB price of 1080 in December [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventories (Week 45, 2025) - Soybean Oil: 115.7 tons this week, down from 121.6 tons last week and up from 107.8 tons last year [2]. - Palm Oil: 59.7 tons this week, up from 59.3 tons last week and up from 53.1 tons last year [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: 45.5 tons this week, down from 51.4 tons last week and up from 41.3 tons last year [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - As of the week ending November 5, Argentine farmers sold 28.67 tons of 24/25 - year soybeans, with 22.97 tons purchased by local oil mills and 5.7 tons by the export industry. They also sold 3.11 tons of 25/26 - year soybeans, with 2.62 tons purchased by local oil mills and 0.49 tons by the export industry. The total sales of all - year soybeans were 32.2 tons, and the cumulative sales reached 8398.43 tons. The cumulative export sales registration of 24/25 - year soybeans was 1226.4 tons, and that of 25/26 - year soybeans was 186.7 tons [4]. Domestic Market - Palm Oil: Futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower. As of November 7, the national commercial inventory was 59.73 tons, up 0.45 tons from last week (0.76% increase). The import profit was around -200, and the basis was stable. It may have a limited upward movement due to lack of drivers and suggests short - term long positions at low prices or continued observation [5]. - Soybean Oil: Futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly higher. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 180.57 tons, and the operating rate was 49.67%. As of November 7, the commercial inventory was 115.72 tons, down 5.86 tons from last week (4.82% decrease). The inventory may decline slightly, but supply is still sufficient. It is expected to fluctuate, and suggests waiting for a pull - back to enter long positions [5][6]. - Rapeseed Oil: Futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly higher. Last week, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. As of November 7, the coastal inventory was 45.5 tons, down 5.9 tons from last week. The import profit was around -1100, and the basis was strong. It is recommended to go long on OI03 or 05 contracts on pull - backs [6]. Group 4: Trading Strategies Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: After a sharp decline, oils and fats have stabilized and rebounded technically. Palm oil may have limited upward movement, suggesting short - term long positions at low prices or continued observation [8]. - Arbitrage: Observation [8]. - Options: Observation [8]. Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes charts on the basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, Y 1 - 5 month - to - month spread, P 1 - 5 month - to - month spread, OI 1 - 5 month - to - month spread, Y - P 01 spread, and OI - Y 01 spread [10][12]