玉米淀粉日报-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The U.S. corn market is expected to remain in a narrow - range oscillation. Although there may be a potential reduction in the yield per unit, the overall production is still expected to increase. The domestic corn market shows short - term strength in spot prices, but there is still a risk of price decline due to the potential seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China. The upward space for the 01 - contract corn futures is limited. For corn starch, the short - term upward space for the 01 - contract on the futures market is also limited as the price of North China corn may decline in November [4][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data - Futures Market: The closing prices of C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 2177, 2251, 2279, 2490, 2577, and 2625 respectively. The trading volumes of C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 decreased by 32.13%, 33.00%, 51.24%, 20.45%, 38.38%, and 14.63% respectively. The positions of C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 changed by 0.96%, 3.01%, 1.77%, 1.23%, - 0.33%, and - 0.19% respectively [2]. - Spot and Basis: The spot prices of corn in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are 1960, 2050, 2300, 2250, 2190, 2300, and 2320 respectively, with price changes of 0, 20, 10, 10, 10, 10, and 20. The basis is - 319, - 229, 21, - 29, 13, 21, and 41 respectively. The spot prices of starch in Longfeng, COFCO, Cargill, Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are 2650, 2650, 2800, 2890, 2800, 2900, and 2800 respectively, with no price changes. The basis is 73, 73, 223, 313, 223, 323, and 223 respectively [2]. - Price Spreads: The spreads of C01 - C05, C05 - C09, C09 - C01, CS01 - CS05, CS05 - CS09, CS09 - CS01, CS09 - C09, CS01 - C01, and CS05 - C05 are - 74, - 28, 102, - 87, - 48, 135, 346, 313, and 326 respectively, with price changes of 3, - 3, 0, 3, - 5, 2, 2, 0, and 0 respectively [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Corn: The U.S. corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn has declined. The spot prices of corn in the north ports and Northeast China have increased. The supply in North China has decreased, and the spot price is strong. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn is large. The wheat price in North China is weak, and corn has a cost - performance advantage. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and some feed enterprises are building inventories in Northeast China. The 01 - contract corn futures are oscillating at a high level, and the basis of the spot market is weakening. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn and the inventory - building of downstream enterprises [4][6]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch inventory has decreased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 113.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 0.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.6%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product price is strong, and the profit of enterprises is good. The 01 - contract starch futures are oscillating at a high level following corn, but the corn price in North China may decline in November, and the starch spot price is also expected to fall [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: The U.S. corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. It is recommended to wait and see for the 05 - and 01 - contract corn, and aggressive investors can try short - selling. - Arbitrage: Try to narrow the price spread between the 01 - contract corn and starch when it is high [9]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy with rolling operations [11].