造纸产业风险管理日报-20251112

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Paper Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: November 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Price Forecast - Paper pulp price range (monthly): 4750 - 5600, current volatility: 9.14%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 5.86% [2] - Offset printing paper price range (monthly): 4150 - 4350, current volatility: 8.72%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 50.00% [2] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For high inventory, sell pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601 at 5500 - 5600, OP2601 at 4350 - 4400) and sell call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4400) [2] Procurement Management - For low inventory, buy pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601 at 5150 - 5250, OP2601 at 4100 - 4150) and sell put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) [2] Group 3: Core Contradictions and Market Analysis Paper Pulp - Futures and spot prices: Futures show high - level oscillation, spot price is stable [3] - Supply - demand factors: Supply pressure reduces due to Maine pulp mill's temporary shutdown; demand is relatively negative in the short - term but overall demand recovers; port inventory is high, and its support is limited [3] Offset Printing Paper - Futures and spot prices: Spot price is stable after previous increases, futures price oscillates at a relatively high level [3] - Supply - demand factors: Market is in the cost - support stage, paper enterprises issued price - increase letters, but spot demand is weak, and the shutdown events have little impact [3] - Short - term trend: Both pulp and offset printing paper are expected to oscillate with a slightly downward central price [3] Group 4: Strategies Paper Pulp - Futures: Short - term, short at high prices and focus on 12 - 01 backwardation [5] - Options: Temporarily wait and see [5] Offset Printing Paper - Futures: Short - term, short at high prices [5] - Options: Temporarily wait and see [6] Group 5: Market Factors Bullish Factors - Paper enterprises and pulp mills raise quotes [10] - Tariffs on the US remain [10] - US Magnolia pulp mill's temporary shutdown [10] Bearish Factors - Overseas shipping costs may decrease [10] - High - level port inventory is difficult to deplete [10] - Four major paper enterprises issued shutdown announcements [10] Group 6: Price and Inventory Data Price Data - Pulp and offset printing paper futures prices, price differences, and their daily and weekly changes [13] - Pulp and double - offset paper spot prices, regional price differences, and their daily and weekly changes [14] Inventory Data - Pulp inventory in China (weekly) [11] - Pulp inventory warehouse receipts [15] Group 7: Basis Data - Pulp basis daily changes and seasonal data [8][9] - Offset printing paper basis daily changes [8]