供给约束不断强化，客座率升至历史高位，高弹性或一触即发——从淡季不淡的价格表现说起：航空行业2026年度投资策略

Group 1 - The report highlights that the airline industry is experiencing a significant rebound, with ticket prices turning positive since mid-September, indicating a strong demand despite the traditional off-peak season [1][7][13] - The passenger load factor reached a historical high of 86.3% in September, the highest since 2006, and has continued to rise into October, reflecting robust demand [1][20][21] - The growth in passenger numbers is resilient, with domestic flight volume growth below 1%, while cross-border travel demand is increasing significantly [1][25][26] Group 2 - The supply-demand fundamentals are now better than in 2024 and 2019, with a 10.3% increase in passenger turnover and a 13.2% increase in fleet size projected for 2024 compared to 2019 [8][32][34] - Structural improvements in demand are noted, particularly in business travel, which has returned to an expansionary phase, and cross-border travel demand is outpacing domestic growth [2][42][48] - The supply side is constrained by maintenance issues and low growth in new aircraft deliveries, with significant recalls affecting existing fleet availability [3][56][61] Group 3 - The report indicates that the industry is at a turning point regarding supply-demand-price dynamics, with high elasticity expected as ticket prices rise [4][10][80] - Cost reductions are anticipated due to declining oil prices, which have decreased by 11% year-on-year, positively impacting airline operating costs [6][10] - Investment recommendations include a focus on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from improved operational efficiencies [6][10][80]