集运日报：现货指数大涨带动远月合约，风险偏好者已建议提前布局02合约，关注12月运价支撑逻辑-20251112

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The upward movement of SCFIS has boosted the sentiment of long - position holders, and the futures market is in a state of oscillating operation under the game between long and short positions. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and the focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. Tariff issues have a marginal effect, and close attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight prices [1][3]. - With the sharp rise of the spot index driving the far - month contracts, risk - preferring investors are advised to enter the 02 contract in advance and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [1]. Content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Freight Index Information - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1504.80 points, up 24.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1329.71 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, down 4.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1349.1 points, down 7.14% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1495.10 points, down 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1323 USD/TEU, down 1.6% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US West route was 2212 USD/FEU, down 16.4% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, up 3.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 814.14 points, up 5.4% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In October, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3]. Futures Market Information - On November 11, the main contract 2512 closed at 1746.1, down 1.87%, with a trading volume of 32,200 lots and an open interest of 25,200 lots, a decrease of 1475 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: As the main contract retreats and the far - month contracts are strong, risk - preferring investors are advised to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4].