原油震荡上行：原油日报-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus situation, and it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate in the near term [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 2nd, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be on November 30th. This will increase the supply pressure in Q4 2025 but unexpectedly relieve it in Q1 2026 [1] - Saudi Aramco has comprehensively lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December, with the price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, cut by $1.20 per barrel [1] - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the gasoline inventory drawdown exceeded expectations, but the U.S. crude oil inventory build - up also exceeded expectations, with the overall refined product inventory slightly increasing [1][3] - The U.S. crude oil production continued to reach a new historical high [1][3] - The end of the consumption peak season, the decline of the U.S. ISM manufacturing index in October, and continued contraction for eight months have led to market concerns about crude oil demand [1] - The U.S. has changed its attitude towards Russia, sanctioning two major Russian oil companies and their subsidiaries. However, Trump said he hopes to meet Putin in Budapest. The military confrontation between the U.S. and Venezuela has escalated [1] - After the Russian crude oil discount widened, India continued to import Russian crude oil, but there is a possibility that it will gradually reduce imports due to a new tariff agreement with the U.S. Indian oil companies have different attitudes after the sanctions [1] - After the attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine, European gasoline and diesel prices have continued to rise. Currently, the Russian crude oil export volume remains high [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2512 contract, rose 1.52% to 466.2 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 461.7 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 470.4 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,619 to 22,279 lots [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects global liquid fuel production to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It also raised the forecast of U.S. crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3] - On the evening of November 5th, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending October 31st, the U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected: 603,000 barrels), 5.34% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventory decreased by 4.729 million barrels (expected: 1.14 million barrels); refined oil inventory decreased by 643,000 barrels (expected: 1.969 million barrels). Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 30,000 barrels [3] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its August 2025 crude oil production was revised down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its September production increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. U.S. crude oil production for the week ending October 31st increased by 700 barrels per day to 13.651 million barrels per day [3] 3.4 Demand Data - According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, a 2.20% decrease compared to the same period last year, changing from being higher to lower than the same period last year [4] - The weekly gasoline demand decreased by 0.56% to 8.874 million barrels per day, with the four - week average demand at 8.677 million barrels per day, a 2.08% decrease compared to the same period last year [4] - The weekly diesel demand decreased by 3.63% to 3.71 million barrels per day, with the four - week average demand at 3.843 million barrels per day, a 1.66% decrease compared to the same period last year [4] - The decline in gasoline demand and larger drops in other refined products led to a 4.35% decrease in the single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products [4]