情绪发酵，盘面探涨

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The urea market showed a pattern of opening low and then rising in the afternoon. Although downstream acceptance of high prices is still average, there is increased purchasing in the Northeast, and prices in North China have mostly risen. With upstream factory复产 and new production increasing daily output to 200,000 tons and expected to maintain high production this month, the abundant supply makes it difficult for prices to rise significantly. The rising coal prices in the heating season are expected to support the urea price from the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for reserve - type domestic use, and raw material fertilizer preparation will gradually start as factories resume work. Since the fourth batch of export quotas was announced last Friday, downstream purchasing has increased, and inventory has been declining. The afternoon market rally was mainly due to export news and improved demand, but supply and high inventory still create significant upward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Futures Market: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1643 yuan/ton, opened low and then rose in the afternoon, closing at 1655 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The trading volume was 256,120 lots, an increase of 2,098 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions decreased by 2,247 lots and short positions increased by 2,515 lots [2]. - Spot Market: Downstream acceptance of high prices is still average, but there is increased purchasing in the Northeast, and prices in North China have mostly risen. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, with limited transactions at the high end [1][3]. - Warehouse Receipts: On November 12, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,958, an increase of 146 from the previous trading day, with all the increase from Ningling Stanley [5]. 3.2. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation declined, while the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at - 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply: On November 12, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,500 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.51% [10]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease [11]. - Pre - sale Orders: As of November 12, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.1 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period, a 5.76% increase [11].