棉花、棉纱日报-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that in November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is abundant, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The market is entering a relatively off - season after the peak season, and orders have been mediocre recently. However, previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will likely fluctuate, with limited upward and downward space. Additionally, upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations and the expiration of the Sino - US tariff agreement in November may have a significant impact on the market [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Information - Futures Market: In the cotton futures market, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 45, 35, and 30 respectively. The trading volume of CF01 and CF05 increased by 111532 and 52444 hands respectively. In the棉纱 futures market, the CY01 contract decreased by 65, and the CY05 and CY09 contracts remained unchanged [2]. - Spot Market: The CCIndex3128B spot price increased by 7 yuan/ton, while the CY IndexC32S decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of other spot products such as Cot A, FC Index:M: to - port price, etc., also had corresponding changes [2]. - Price Spreads: In the cotton and棉纱 markets, various price spreads, including inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads, showed different degrees of change. For example, the 1 - month to 5 - month spread of cotton decreased by 10, and the CY01 - CF01 spread decreased by 20 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - Cotton Market News - The Xinjiang cotton road transport price index remained flat on November 12, 2025, with a slight increase in transportation demand and available capacity. It is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - On November 11, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton and hand - picked cotton purchase indices decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang ranges from 5.3 to 6.1 yuan/kg, and the purchase progress in some areas is over 80% [4]. - As of November 10, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 3.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41%. The proportion of cotton from different sources changed, with an increase in Brazilian and Australian cotton and a decrease in US cotton [5]. - Trading Logic: The supply of new cotton is increasing, and although there is a large - scale increase in production this year, the increase may be less than expected. The demand is in the off - season, and orders are mediocre. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate, and Sino - US trade policies need attention [6]. - Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. Previous long positions should take profits [7]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9]. - Cotton Yarn Industry News - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated weakly, and cotton yarn futures followed the same trend. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market weakened, with new orders insufficient. High - count yarn export orders are better, while domestic orders are average. Spinning mills' yarn prices are stable [9]. - The cotton textile market has not changed much recently, with trading being differentiated. The profit of fabric mills is around the break - even point, and the inventory of all - cotton fabric mills has decreased slightly. Fabric mills purchase cotton yarn according to orders [9]. 3.3 Options - Option Data: The report provides data on option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, including contract prices, yields, and Greeks (Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta). The implied volatility of different option contracts varies [11]. - Option Strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report includes multiple graphs, such as the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and cotton 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads [15][18][22][23].