Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The research report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., and provides corresponding trading strategies based on macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost - profit analysis [1][9][17] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,840 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. Spot trading improved slightly, with different premiums in different regions [1] - Important Information: Weak ADP employment data in the US, potential end of government shutdown, and production changes in some copper mines [1] - Logic Analysis: Loose macro - environment, tight supply in the short - term, and demand supported by power grid tenders [2][4] - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see for one - sided trading, long - term bullish; possible phased rebound in ratio for arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [5][6][7] Alumina - Market Review: The 2601 contract of alumina fell 5 yuan to 2,821 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [9] - Related Information: Procurement prices in different regions, government actions in Guinea, production capacity changes, and cost data [10][11][12] - Logic Analysis: Supply - demand surplus, expected reduction in production, but new investment pressure at the end of the year [14] - Trading Strategy: Short - term narrow - range rebound, beware of selling pressure; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The 2601 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 190 yuan to 21,880 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [18] - Related Information: US economic data, government shutdown news, inventory changes, and production capacity changes [18][19][21] - Trading Logic: Loose macro - environment, tight overseas supply, and domestic demand with certain resilience [22] - Trading Strategy: Maintain a volatile and strong trend for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [23][24] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The 2601 contract of casting aluminum alloy rose 175 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton, and spot prices showed different trends [26] - Related Information: US economic data, cost - profit data, and changes in warehouse receipts [26][27] - Trading Logic: Loose macro - environment, tight waste aluminum supply, and cost support [30] - Trading Strategy: Aluminum alloy prices are strong along with aluminum prices; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - Market Review: The 2512 contract of Shanghai zinc fell 0.18% to 22,680 yuan/ton, and spot trading was cold [33] - Related Information: Processing fee guidance price, inventory changes, and production reduction expectations in mines and smelters [34][35] - Logic Analysis: Tight supply at the mine end, reduced smelter profits, and limited upward space [35] - Trading Strategy: Range - bound for one - sided trading; hold SHFE - LME arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [37] Lead - Market Review: The 2512 contract of Shanghai lead rose 0.97% to 17,660 yuan/ton, and spot trading was okay [39] - Related Information: Inventory changes, profit conditions of recycling enterprises, and supply of recycled lead [40] - Logic Analysis: Supply is recovering, demand is weakening, and prices are under pressure [41] - Trading Strategy: Short at high levels for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 fell 740 to 118,710 yuan/ton, and spot premiums changed [44][45] - Important Information: Indonesia's policy on nickel smelters [47] - Logic Analysis: Loose supply - demand, limited rebound, and expected weakening in the off - season [47] - Trading Strategy: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 fell 95 to 12,425 yuan/ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [52] - Important Information: Decline in high - nickel pig iron prices and export price cuts by Indonesian enterprises [53] - Logic Analysis: Weak trading atmosphere, abundant cold - rolled supply, and downward - trending costs [53][55] - Trading Strategy: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage [56][57] Tin - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 292,440 yuan/ton, up 1.75%, and spot prices rose [59] - Related Information: US economic data and decline in Indonesian tin exports [60] - Logic Analysis: Potential end of US government shutdown, tight supply at the mine end, and slow demand recovery [61] - Trading Strategy: Tin prices may test previous highs; wait - and - see for options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - Important Information: Policies on new energy consumption and regulation [65] - Logic Analysis: Reduced demand for polysilicon, increased power prices in some areas, and limited upward space [66] - Strategy Suggestion: Range - bound operation for one - sided trading; long Si2512 and short Si2601 for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit [67][68] Polysilicon - Important Information: News about the potential establishment of a storage platform [70] - Logic Analysis: Reduced supply and demand, marginal improvement in supply - demand, and short - term range - bound [70] - Strategy Suggestion: Range - bound operation and buy at low levels for one - sided trading; long PS2512 and short PS2601 for arbitrage; no suggestion for options [72][73][74] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate fell 180 to 86,580 yuan/ton, and spot prices rose [76] - Important Information: Policies on new energy, progress of a lithium salt project, and growth in global energy storage cell shipments [77] - Logic Analysis: Increased demand and supply - side disturbances support high - level prices [78] - Trading Strategy: High - level operation in the short - term; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the money put options [79][80][82]
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20251112
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-12 11:21