银河期货苹果日报-20251112

Group 1: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 106.38, up 0.02 from the previous trading day. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.02, down 0.01 [2] - Futures prices: AP01 closed at 9207, down 22; AP05 at 9241, down 48; AP10 at 8345, down 44 [2] - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against AP01, AP05, and AP10 were not available [2] Group 2: Market News and Views Apple Market News - In September 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 0.97 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.10%. The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 10.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.49%. The export volume in September 2025 was about 7.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32% [6] - The off - warehouse apple procurement in the producing areas is gradually ending. The remaining goods are mainly traded in the procurement market. The procurement enthusiasm from the cold storage in the northwest producing areas is relatively high. The market arrival is stable, and the sales are okay [6] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [7] - The mainstream transaction price of apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi is stable. In Qixia, Shandong, the price of high - quality apples is stable, and the remaining off - warehouse goods are few [8] Trading Logic - This year, the apple production has decreased, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and the storage difficulty has increased. It is expected that the cold - storage inventory data will probably be lower than last year. As of November 6, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.68%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.62 percentage points; the inventory was 6.8274 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.04% [9][10][12] Group 3: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The apple fundamentals are strong, and the spot price has risen recently. Consider buying on dips [20] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [20] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [20]