银河期货尿素日报-20251112

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Daily Report (November 12, 2025) [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Industry: Urea in the Energy and Chemical Sector [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment for urea has cooled down after the impact of the new export quota news faded. The supply is currently abundant with increasing daily production, while the demand is weakening. The domestic urea market is expected to see a decline in prices in the short - term, although the fourth batch of export quotas may have a short - term positive impact on market sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures rose and then fell, closing at 1655 (+7/+0.42%) [3]. - Spot Market: The ex - factory prices were weakly stable with general trading. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1560 - 1600 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1500 - 1560 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1420 - 1490 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On November 12, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.81 tons, an increase of 0.14 tons from the previous working day and 1.59 tons from the same period last year. The current operating rate was 84.68%, 4.06% higher than 80.62% in the same period last year [4]. Logic Analysis - Supply Side: The maintenance devices are gradually returning, and the daily average production has increased to around 19.9 tons. The urea production enterprise inventory has increased slightly by 20,000 tons to around 1.58 million tons, remaining at a high level [5]. - Demand Side: The fourth batch of export quotas is expected to be around 600,000 tons. The international price's impact on the domestic market has increased again. However, the compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grass - roots stocking is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low [5]. - Regional Market: In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory prices are expected to decline; in Henan, the ex - factory prices are expected to follow the downward trend; in the delivery area and its surrounding areas, the ex - factory prices are expected to remain stable for now [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - sided: Go short [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]