银河期货甲醇日报-20251112

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Daily Report, November 12, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] - Contact: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: The futures market rebounded with fluctuations, closing at 2108 (+14/+0.67%) [2] - Spot Market: Various regions had different spot prices, with production areas like Inner Mongolia南线 at 1960 yuan/ton, and consumption areas like Lunan at 2120 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Important Information - Port Inventory: As of November 12, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 154.36 million tons, an increase of 5.65 million tons from the previous period. East China saw an inventory increase of 6.49 million tons, while South China had a decrease of 0.84 million tons [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: Coal - to - methanol profit was around 320 yuan/ton, with high and stable domestic production capacity utilization and continuous ample domestic supply [4] - Import: The US dollar price dropped rapidly, the import forwardation widened. Iranian production was fully normal, non - Iranian production capacity utilization increased slightly, and the foreign market's production capacity utilization returned to a high level [4] - Demand: The MTO device production capacity utilization increased, with some MTO devices operating stably and some at partial loads [4] - Inventory: Import arrivals decreased slightly, the port inventory accumulation cycle ended, and the basis was strong; inland enterprise inventory fluctuated slightly [4] - Overall Situation: With increased international production capacity utilization, resumed imports, and ample port spot liquidity, methanol continued its downward trend, especially considering the high - inventory background [4] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions [5] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [6] - Options: Sell call options [6]