农产品日报-20251112

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - 豆油: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - 标油: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - 豆粕: One red star, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - 菜油: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - 菜粕: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - 玉米: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - 生猪: One red star, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - 鸡蛋: One red star, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and future outlooks, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs [豆一] - The price of domestic soybeans shows high - level fluctuations. Short - term policies are conducive to price stability, and the spot price is stable [2] - The warehouse receipts of domestic soybeans are increasing. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans shows a sideways trend without a clear short - term trend [2] - Continuously monitor domestic soybean policies and market sentiment in the short term [2] [大豆&豆粕] - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures M2601 fluctuates strongly. US soybeans are expected to continue rising [3] - The tax rate for importing US soybeans in China has been changed to 13%, and commercial imports still have no price advantage, while policy - based purchases should be unaffected [3] - The estimated soybean arrivals from November to January next year are about 9.5 million tons, 7.5 million tons, and 5 million tons respectively, with sufficient supply in the fourth quarter [3] - Focus on the USDA November supply - demand report on Friday. Foreign media expect a slight decrease in US soybean yield, and the ending inventory data may be crucial [3] - Look for opportunities to go long at low prices after the relaxation of Sino - US trade [3] [豆油&棕榈油] - Rapeseed oil is still strong today, leading the market. Soybean oil rises slightly, and palm oil moves sideways [4] - The actual supply - demand situation of palm oil shows high inventory in Malaysia. The supply - demand situation in November needs to be monitored to guide price trends [4] - The near - end crushing profit of imported soybeans is damaged, which supports the price of soybean oil [4] - The oil - meal ratio shows that soybean oil is stronger than soybean meal this week. The price of palm oil moves sideways, and it is necessary to monitor its supply - demand situation and the trends of surrounding oils [4] [菜粕&菜油] - The main contracts of rapeseed futures increase positions slightly, continuing the pattern of strong oil and weak meal [6] - The short - term supply shortage sentiment caused by the suspension of rapeseed meal crushing in domestic coastal areas is gradually easing, and it is expected to be greatly alleviated after the arrival of Australian rapeseed [6] - The Canadian government has established a $372 million biofuel production incentive program, which boosts the demand outlook for rapeseed oil [6] - Canadian rapeseed continues the state of high crushing and low exports. Pay attention to the development of Sino - Canadian relations [6] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term for rapeseed products [6] [玉米] - The Dalian corn futures 2601 contract rises first and then falls. The estimated corn output this season is 300 million tons, a 1.72% increase from the previous season [7] - The selling progress of corn in Northeast China is slower than expected, and the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply in Shandong continues to decrease, and the spot price is stable [7] - The price of wheat weakens due to the expected auction. The transfer of grain rights is not large, and the peak of new grain supply in Northeast China has not passed. The rebound height is expected to be limited [7] - The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] [生猪] - The pig futures market continues to trade the expectation of capacity reduction. The far - month contracts continue to rebound, and the near - month contracts fluctuate narrowly [8] - The spot price of pigs continues to decline weakly. The current rebound of the futures market is regarded as a post - bottoming rebound [8] - In the long - term, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a double - bottom "W" shape. The low price in October is likely to be the first bottom, and there is a high probability of a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] [鸡蛋] - The egg futures price drops rapidly during the session, with a net increase of nearly 10,000 lots in funds and heavy trading volume [9] - The near - month contracts lead the decline, and the market switches from trading the capacity reduction expectation of far - month contracts to trading the logic that the spot price of eggs weakens after Double Eleven [9] - The spot price of eggs is stable in most regions and falls in some regions. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices [9]