每日核心期货品种分析-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - As of the close on November 12, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like silver, tin, and crude oil rose, while container shipping, eggs, and jujubes declined. There were also fluctuations in stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The flow of funds into and out of different contracts varied [6][7]. - The prices of various commodities are influenced by multiple factors including supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and international trade situations. For example, copper prices are affected by supply uncertainties and weak downstream demand; lithium carbonate prices are supported by supply - demand tightness; and crude oil prices are affected by OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical issues [9][11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of November 12, domestic futures main contracts had mixed performance. Silver, tin, butadiene rubber, SC crude oil, rapeseed oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and iron ore rose over 1%, while container shipping, eggs, and jujubes had significant drops. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also had different trends. In terms of funds, some contracts had inflows while others had outflows [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities 3.2.1 Copper - Supply: With long - term contract negotiations approaching, there is uncertainty in long - term contract prices and settlement methods. In November, 5 smelters are expected to conduct maintenance, affecting 4.80 million tons of production. The开工 rate of copper concentrate smelters decreased, while that of smelters using scrap copper or anode copper increased. Scrap copper supply is expected to increase [9] - Demand: The peak season was weaker than previous years, and downstream demand remained weak. Copper product开工 rates declined, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Supply: In October, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China decreased year - on - year, but domestic production continued to grow. The开工 rate increased [11] - Demand: Supported by the strong performance of energy - storage batteries, downstream procurement was smooth. The production of power, energy - storage, and consumer batteries increased, and new - energy vehicle sales also grew [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ decided to increase production in December but pause in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco lowered prices for Asian markets. US crude production reached a new high, and overall oil inventories increased slightly [12] - Demand: The peak consumption season ended, and market concerns about demand increased due to factors like the decline in the US manufacturing index [12] - Geopolitical factors: US sanctions on Russian oil companies, the US - Venezuela military stand - off, and the attitude of Indian oil companies towards Russian oil all affect the market [12][14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Supply: The开工 rate decreased slightly last week, and November's production is expected to decline. Some refineries plan to resume production [15] - Demand: Downstream开工 rates mostly increased, but were restricted by funds and weather. Northern projects are rushing to work, while southern demand is affected by rain [15] 3.2.5 PP - Supply: The开工 rate of PP enterprises increased, and new production capacity was put into operation. The proportion of standard - grade production increased [16][17] - Demand: The downstream开工 rate was at a low level in the same period. Orders had limited follow - up, and the market lacked large - scale purchases [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - Supply: The开工 rate increased, and new production capacity was put into operation or in trial operation [18] - Demand: The downstream开工 rate decreased. Although the agricultural film season was in progress, the peak season was not as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness was low [18] 3.2.7 PVC - Supply: The开工 rate increased and was at a relatively high level in the same period. New production capacity was put into operation, and some enterprises' maintenance was about to end [20] - Demand: The downstream开工 rate declined slightly. Exports are expected to weaken, and social inventory increased [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Supply: Mongolian coal imports increased, but domestic production decreased. Policy - driven production cuts and environmental protection warnings made the supply in a tight - balance situation [21] - Demand: Steel mills'开工 and iron - water production decreased, and downstream demand was weak [22] 3.2.9 Urea - Supply: Factory复产 and new production increased the daily output, and high production is expected to continue this month [23] - Demand: Downstream high - price acceptance was average, but demand in the Northeast increased. The market was affected by export news, and inventory was decreasing [23]