鸡蛋日报-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production is still at a high level. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upside space is expected to be relatively limited. The recent decline in spot prices indicates that egg prices are likely to be weak in the short term, but the downside space is also relatively limited [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Futures prices: JD01 closed at 3322, down 51 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3543, down 34; JD09 closed at 3870, down 11 [2]. - Cross - month spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was - 221, down 17; the 05 - 09 spread was - 327, down 23; the 09 - 01 spread was 548, up 40 [2]. - Price ratios: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.53, down 0.02; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.09, down 0.02. Similar changes were seen in other ratios [2]. 2. Spot Market - Egg prices: The average price in the producing areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the selling areas was 3.21 yuan/jin, unchanged [2]. - Culled chicken prices: The average price of culled chickens was 4.00 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin [2]. 3. Profit Calculation - Today's profit per chicken was 3.35 yuan, down 1.01 yuan from yesterday. The average price of culled chickens was 4.00 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - laying chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged [2]. - Feed prices: The average price of corn was 2255 yuan, up 3 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3080 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.50 yuan, unchanged [2]. 4. Fundamental Information - Price trends: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.21 yuan/jin, unchanged. The national mainstream prices were stable or falling [4]. - Laying hen inventory: In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, and an increase of 5.5% year - on - year. It is estimated that the inventory in November, December, January, and February 2025 will be approximately 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - Culled chicken situation: From November 6th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas was 19.81 million, a decrease of 3% from the previous week. The average culling age was 493 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - Egg sales volume: As of November 6th, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7300 tons, a decrease of 4% from the previous week [6]. - Profit situation: As of November 6th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 31st, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 4.82 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 1.42 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - Inventory situation: As of November 6th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [6]. 5. Trading Logic - The recent increase in culled chickens has alleviated supply pressure, but the high number of laying hens in production means slow short - term de - capacity. The upside space for egg prices is limited due to the premium in the December main contract, and prices are likely to be weak in the short term with limited downside [8]. 6. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider building long positions at low levels for the far - month contracts [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10].