降息预期升温，铜价震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, and copper prices are oscillating with a bullish bias. The news that the US government is about to end the shutdown and the friendly trade relations between China and the US have boosted market risk appetite. The lack of US economic data has led to significant differences in the market's view on a December interest rate cut, causing the US dollar index to weaken recently, which supports copper prices. However, the peak season performance is weaker than in previous years, and the downstream demand is in a weak state. The inventory of copper has been accumulating recently [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: As the long - term contract negotiation approaches, there is still great uncertainty in the long - term contract price and settlement method. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons, with an expected maintenance impact of 48,000 tons. The operating rate of copper concentrate smelters is 85.4%, a 3.1% month - on - month decrease; the operating rate of smelters mainly using scrap copper or anode copper is 63.3%, a 1.0% month - on - month increase. Affected by Document No. 770, the purchase of anode copper is still affected, but after the policies in some regions are clarified, the operation is gradually recovering, and it is expected that the subsequent supply of scrap copper will increase to make up for the tight supply of copper ore [1]. - Demand: The peak season performance is weaker than in previous years and is now basically over. The short - term callback in purchasing has not reversed the weak state of downstream demand. The operating rate of downstream copper products has decreased month - on - month. According to a Mysteel sample survey, the domestic refined copper rod output in October was 756,000 tons, a 10.99% month - on - month decrease [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been accumulating since the end of October and is now at a relatively high level compared to the same period. Recently, with the high copper prices, the inventory has continued to increase [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved higher, oscillating with a bullish bias within the day [1][4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 50 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in South China is - 10 yuan/ton. On November 11, 2025, the LME official price was 10,804 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 27 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply - side - As of the latest data on November 10, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) is - 41.9 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.00 cents/pound [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 44,100 tons, an increase of 1,527 tons from the previous period. As of November 10, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 136,300 tons, an increase of 375 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 376,600 short tons, an increase of 2,935 short tons from the previous period [10].