——美国最高法关税辩论分析：如果对等关税被判违法？

Legal Analysis - The U.S. Supreme Court's debate on the legality of "reciprocal tariffs" shows a 3:6 split, with 6 justices leaning towards declaring them illegal[2] - The likelihood of a ruling against reciprocal tariffs is increasing, but a delayed effect is probable, allowing the government time to adjust[2][10] - Possible outcomes include a ruling of illegality with a delay (45%-55% probability), partial illegality focusing on specific tariffs like fentanyl (20%-30% probability), or a ruling upholding their legality (10%-20% probability)[16][17] Economic Implications - If reciprocal tariffs are deemed illegal, U.S. tariff revenue could decline by 25%, potentially dropping from $3,412 billion to $2,554 billion[4][23] - Current tariff structure: reciprocal tariffs account for 45% of U.S. tariff revenue, with 301 tariffs at 18% and 232 tariffs at 17%[4][23] - The effective tariff rate for the U.S. is currently 9.75%, with the highest rate on Chinese imports at 40.4%[4][29] Political Response - Trump may pivot to existing tariff laws (Sections 232, 301, and 338) if reciprocal tariffs are invalidated, with a low probability of widespread tax refunds[3][20] - The likelihood of targeted tax refunds is higher, but broad automatic refunds are unlikely due to legal constraints[3][22] Market Reactions - Following the Supreme Court's deliberations, market expectations for tariff legality have shifted, impacting capital markets and trade policies[5][10] - The recent government shutdown affected 670,000 federal employees, with 1.52 million remaining on payroll, highlighting the political stakes involved[5]