能源日报-20251112

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined by star rating in a standard way in the given context, but analysis provided [1][2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined by star rating in a standard way in the given context, but analysis provided [2] - Asphalt: Not clearly defined by star rating in a standard way in the given context, but analysis provided [1][3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends and investment opportunities of various energy products including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas. It provides insights into supply, demand, price movements, and suggests corresponding investment strategies based on different product fundamentals [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Categories Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC12 contract rising 1.52% intraday. There is still downside potential for oil prices this year as the oil price spread and spot premium have weakened since November and the most relaxed balance sheet quarter (Q1 next year) is yet to come. However, short - term support exists due to the resolution of the US government shutdown and geopolitical concerns. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: Although supported by geopolitical situations, the increase in Middle - East high - sulfur supplies due to OPEC+ production increases and the entry into the off - season for Middle - East refining and power generation demand, along with the possible early issuance of 2026 crude oil quotas, will lead to a looser supply [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply pressure has eased. There is uncertainty about the resumption of the Kuwait Azur refinery, and there are expectations of reduced low - sulfur arrivals in the Singapore market. The strong overseas diesel crack spreads support low - sulfur supply, and demand is also favorable. Consider gradually taking profits on the previous strategy of widening the high - low sulfur spread [2] Asphalt - The rebound in crude oil today drove asphalt to stop falling, with the 2601 contract rising 0.86%. The poor shipment volume not only disproves the "14th Five - Year Plan" end - of - term construction demand expectation but also signals that demand is lower than the same period last year. The slowdown in commercial inventory drawdown and the increase in the year - on - year difference in social inventory are negative factors for the asphalt market [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international liquefied gas market has been strong recently, with tight import supplies. The improvement in butane dehydrogenation device profitability has boosted downstream chemical enterprise operating rates, and the significant temperature drop in many places has increased combustion - end demand. With the decrease in refinery and port storage rates, LPG is expected to fluctuate strongly [4]