天富期货多晶硅探底回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon lack strong driving forces, and their market trends are expected to be mainly characterized by wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon market is in a situation of weak supply and demand; the lithium carbonate market has a supply - demand contradiction with strong demand and limited supply growth; the industrial silicon market presents a pattern of weak supply and demand as well [1][8][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polysilicon - Market Performance: The polysilicon futures opened and fluctuated downward, then rebounded after hitting the bottom in the afternoon. The main 2601 contract rose 2.95% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 53,460 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: The fundamentals of polysilicon have changed little, with both supply and demand being weak. In November, the domestic polysilicon production is expected to be close to 120,000 tons, a significant decrease from October. The downstream silicon wafer and battery cell industries are facing difficulties, and the demand in the photovoltaic industry chain remains sluggish [1]. - Technical Analysis: The overall position of polysilicon futures is basically the same as yesterday. The main 2601 contract increased positions and declined in the morning, and the price rebounded significantly in the afternoon as short - sellers left the market. There were trading opportunities during the day. The 5 - minute cycle is showing a short - term strong trend, while the 2 - hour cycle is still weakly green but approaching the long - short dividing line. In the long - term, it is in a wide - range oscillation pattern [2][3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The lithium carbonate futures oscillated within a range. The main 2601 contract rose 0.05% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 86,580 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: As of November 6, the sample inventory of lithium carbonate dropped to 124,000 tons, with continuous destocking for 12 weeks and an increasing destocking amplitude. In October, the demand for lithium carbonate increased significantly, while the supply growth was limited, resulting in a low inventory - to - sales ratio, which supported the price. Policy factors also indicate strong demand expectations [5][8]. - Technical Analysis: The overall position of lithium carbonate futures increased slightly. The main 2601 contract increased positions and rose, with bulls in control. There was a trading opportunity during the day. The 5 - minute cycle shows a short - term strong trend, but the position decreased significantly at the end of the session. The 2 - hour cycle is still strongly red, with the long - short dividing line at 79,140 yuan/ton [8]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The industrial silicon futures oscillated. The main 2601 contract rose 0.16% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 9,195 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The fundamentals of industrial silicon have tightened. The cost in southern production areas has increased due to the electricity price hike, leading to production cuts. The downstream demand is also weak, resulting in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is difficult to have a trending market [11]. - Technical Analysis: The overall position of industrial silicon futures decreased significantly. The main 2601 contract decreased positions and declined, with bulls in control. The 5 - minute cycle has turned to a short - term strong trend, but the position has been declining in recent days. The 2 - hour cycle is still strongly red, with the long - short dividing line at 9,020 yuan/ton [14].