美国经济的三期叠加

Group 1: Economic Downturn - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a negative feedback loop characterized by declining income, shrinking consumption, and weak employment[2] - Since the beginning of the year, a noticeable cyclical downturn has emerged, with key indicators such as employment, consumption, and services showing continuous decline[3] - The consumer confidence index has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, with the Michigan consumer sentiment index at 50.3[27] Group 2: Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has lasted 43 days, surpassing the previous record of 35 days in December 2018[28] - The shutdown has led to approximately $24 billion in federal spending being paused, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a 2% decline in U.S. economic growth for Q4[4] - The shutdown has also caused liquidity tightening in financial markets, contributing to a significant drop in risk assets such as gold, Bitcoin, and U.S. stocks[32] Group 3: Structural Distortions from AI Investment - There is a clear "K-shaped" divergence in U.S. exports, with AI-related sectors performing exceptionally well while traditional consumer goods exports continue to weaken[36] - AI investments have led to a surge in demand for semiconductors and related infrastructure, with Taiwan's exports to the U.S. increasing by 144.3% in October[36] - The reliance on AI has created a structural dependency that may increase long-term financial system vulnerabilities, as any fluctuations in AI could trigger broader economic disruptions[45]