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央行发布三季度货币政策执行报告,资金面趋于平衡,债市整体偏暖震荡
Dong Fang Jin Cheng·2025-11-12 14:00
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 11, the central bank significantly increased net investment, leading to a balanced capital market. The bond market showed a generally warm and volatile trend, while the convertible bond market's major indices declined collectively, with most individual convertible bonds falling. The yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally decreased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The central bank's Q3 2025 monetary policy implementation report proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various tools to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, and improve the monetary policy framework [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission supported more private investment projects to issue infrastructure REITs. As of October 29, 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds were fully disbursed. 18 private investment projects were recommended to the CSRC, 14 of which were listed, with a total fund issuance of nearly 30 billion yuan. 105 infrastructure REITs projects were recommended in total, 83 of which were listed, covering 10 industries and 18 asset types, with a total fund issuance of 207 billion yuan, expected to drive new project investment of over 1 trillion yuan [4]. - On November 11, the director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Zheng Shanjie, held a private enterprise symposium to listen to suggestions on service industry development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [5]. 3.1.2 International News - As of October 25, the number of private - sector jobs in the US decreased by 45,000, the largest decline since March 2023. However, the number of initial unemployment claims remained low [7]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On November 11, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, and the increase in international natural gas prices widened. WTI December crude oil futures rose 1.51% to $61.04 per barrel, Brent January crude oil futures rose 1.72% to $65.16 per barrel, COMEX gold futures rose 0.28% to $4,133.50 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 3.43% to $4.525 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On November 11, the central bank conducted 403.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 117.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 286.3 billion yuan [10]. 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates - On November 11, the central bank's net investment increased significantly, and the capital market became balanced. DR001 rose 2.52bp to 1.509%, and DR007 rose 1.33bp to 1.513% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - On November 11, the bond market was generally warm and volatile. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 decreased by 0.10bp to 1.8040%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 increased by 0.10bp to 1.8750% [14]. - Several bonds were tendered on November 11, including 25Guokai02 (Increment 19), 25Guokai18 (Increment 6), etc., with different issuance scales, winning yields, full - field multiples, and marginal multiples [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On November 11, the trading price of one industrial bond, "20 Vanke 08", deviated by more than 10%, falling by more than 17% [15]. - There were multiple credit bond events, such as Shenzhen Metro Group providing up to 1.666 billion yuan in loans to Vanke, and some companies' bond redemption and credit rating adjustment announcements [18]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On November 11, the A - share market was weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index falling 0.39%, 1.03%, and 1.40% respectively, with a full - day trading volume of 2.01 trillion yuan. The convertible bond market followed the equity market down, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indices falling 0.16%, 0.15%, and 0.16% respectively, and a trading volume of 66.308 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.876 billion yuan from the previous trading day [19]. - Among individual convertible bonds, 168 rose, 225 fell, and 10 remained flat. Dongshi Convertible Bond continued to reach the daily limit of 20%, while Hangyu Convertible Bond fell by more than 3% [19]. - On November 11, Huate Convertible Bond announced that it was about to trigger the condition for downward revision of the conversion price, and Lizhong Convertible Bond and Chutian Convertible Bond announced that they might meet the early redemption conditions [23]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - The US bond market was closed on November 11 due to Veterans Day [22]. - On November 11, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally decreased. Germany's 10 - year government bond yield decreased by 1bp to 2.66%, and France, Italy, Spain, and the UK's yields decreased by 2bp, 1bp, 2bp, and 8bp respectively [23][24]. - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds as of the close on November 11 showed different increases and decreases among various bonds [26].