全球资产配置：周期洞察与战略布局

Group 1: Global Asset Allocation - The report emphasizes the need for a new paradigm in asset allocation due to the changing macroeconomic environment, where traditional safe assets like bonds are losing their reliability as a safety net [3][4] - It suggests that embracing equity assets and industry trends is crucial for effective asset allocation, advocating for a multi-cycle framework that combines long-term and short-term strategies [4][5] - The report highlights the importance of diversifying asset allocation globally to overcome local market limitations, suggesting that investors should consider various international markets and asset classes [25][26] Group 2: Insights on Market Cycles - The report outlines the characteristics of the new global macroeconomic normal, including aging populations, rising geopolitical risks, and changing asset correlations, which impact long-term economic growth [6][8] - It discusses the failure of traditional asset allocation frameworks and the paradox of safe assets, indicating a significant decline in the supply of safe assets post-financial crises [9][19] - The report identifies the structural bull market logic for gold, driven by the shortage of safe assets and the growing demand for hedging against risks [19][20] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on countries with favorable fundamentals for equity investments, particularly after technical corrections in markets like the US, Japan, and India [4][25] - It suggests that the bond market's core logic has shifted from seeking yield to pursuing diversification, with expectations of favorable conditions for government bonds due to anticipated monetary policy easing [4][25] - The report indicates that commodities, particularly gold, remain in a long-term bull market despite short-term corrections, while oil supply excess poses risks [4][25] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Trends - The report notes a historic turning point in Chinese residents' asset allocation, shifting from real estate-driven wealth storage to a more diversified approach involving financial assets [31][32] - It highlights the importance of understanding the lifecycle of asset allocation, where financial goals and personal milestones drive diversification strategies [21][31] - The report draws comparisons with global experiences in low-interest-rate environments, noting how different countries adapt their asset allocation strategies based on local economic conditions [90][95]