零售的奔腾年代系列（一）：日本商超行业启示录，胖东来模式的逆势成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - The retail transformation presents significant opportunities, making it one of the most aggressive sectors in China's consumption industry, potentially leading to a wave of long-term bullish companies [1][12] - The Japanese supermarket industry has experienced stable market size due to aging population and population decline, impacting consumer preferences and product categories [1][16] - Life Supermarket's success is attributed to its focus on food products, particularly processed foods, which are resilient in an aging society [2][4] Summary by Sections Japanese Supermarket Demand Changes - Population aging and income changes are the two core factors influencing supermarket demand [16] - Japan's aging rate increased from 17.6% in 1990 to 35.7% in 2022, leading to a shift in consumer demographics [16][20] - The total population peaked in 2010 and has been in decline since, suppressing overall supermarket market growth [16][20] Japanese Supermarket Supply Changes - Despite stable market size, the supply side of Japanese supermarkets has shown aggressive growth, with an increase in the number of smaller supermarkets [1][4] - Traditional large-scale supermarkets are decreasing, while food-focused supermarkets are on the rise [1][4] Life Supermarket's Rise - Life Supermarket focuses on food, with processed foods making up 88.74% of its offerings, allowing it to withstand sales declines in traditional categories [2][4] - The supermarket's location strategy involves dense store openings in populous areas, particularly in regions with positive population growth [2][4] - Revenue growth is primarily driven by new store openings rather than same-store sales, with store numbers increasing from 150 in the late 1990s to 314 by 2024 [3][4] Investment Recommendations and Insights - The aging population is a key driver for the growth of food supermarkets in China, with a high certainty of their rise [4] - The competitive landscape differs between Japan and China, with China's developed online market intensifying competition in high-density, high-income areas, while lower-tier markets remain fertile ground for offline supermarkets [4]