2025Q3 货政报告解读：重视货币政策传导，平衡利率比价关系

Report Title - "Bond Daily Report: Emphasize the Transmission of Monetary Policy and Balance the Interest Rate Parity Relationship - Interpretation of the 2025 Q3 Monetary Policy Report" [1] Report Summary - On November 12, 2025, the central bank released the Q3 2025 Monetary Policy Implementation Report. The overall tone has changed, with liquidity, entity financing, cost reduction, exchange rate, and interest rate policies all showing corresponding adjustments [6]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report sends a strong signal for steady growth, is more cautious about the external situation, and strengthens the demand for steady growth led by domestic demand. The policy tone has been adjusted, and the possibility of front - loaded monetary policy next year cannot be ruled out. Although the statement of "preventing capital idling" is removed, the space for significant easing is limited. It also guides the market to rationally view the credit growth rate affected by factors such as debt replacement and proposes to maintain a "reasonable interest rate parity relationship" [3][32]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Focus on Steady Growth and Acknowledge the Improvement in Price Operation - Be cautious about the external situation and have a strong demand for domestic steady growth and stable expectations. The description of the external environment has become more cautious, and more emphasis is placed on expanding domestic demand in the internal environment. The report describes price operation more positively, acknowledging the marginal changes in CPI and PPI and also emphasizing long - term supply - demand contradictions [3][7][8] 2. Change from "Implementing in Detail" to "Implementing Well", and from "Counter - cyclical" to "Counter - cyclical and Cross - cyclical" - "Implementing in detail" is changed to "implementing well", and "counter - cyclical adjustment" is adjusted to "counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment". This does not mean that the window for aggregate easing is completely closed [3][11] 3. Do Not Mention "Preventing Capital Idling", but Still Pay Attention to Overnight Fund Operation - The statement of "preventing capital idling" is not mentioned, but the control over the money market is strengthened, and it is difficult to expect a significant loosening of capital prices. The operation time of outright repurchase and MLF is clearly defined [3][14][15] 4. Maintain a Reasonable Growth of Financial Aggregates and Pay More Attention to Social Financing and Money Supply - Emphasize maintaining a reasonable growth of financial aggregates, mainly focusing on social financing scale and money supply. The credit growth rate has declined due to the crowding - out effect of replacement bonds. Continue to promote the reduction of the comprehensive social financing cost and pay attention to stabilizing the net interest margin of banks [3][19][20] 5. Exchange Rate Pressure Eases, and the Statement of "Three Resolves" Fades - In the exchange rate statement, the emphasis is on preventing exchange rate over - adjustment risks, and the statement of "three resolves" is faded, indicating that the pressure on the RMB exchange rate has eased [3][23] 6. Do Not Directly Mention "Pay Attention to the Trend of Long - term Interest Rates", but Emphasize Maintaining a Reasonable Interest Rate Parity - The text does not directly mention "pay attention to the trend of long - term yields", but proposes to balance the interest rate parity relationship of each group to smooth the transmission of monetary policy, and lists several key interest rate relationships [3][27]