CRT(SH:600125) Tianfeng Securities·2025-11-13 00:49Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company's operating performance remains stable, with a continuous increase in gross profit. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 8.582 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.2%. However, gross profit reached 923 million yuan, an increase of 11.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 548 million yuan, up 38.7% [1][4] - The special container business is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a projected annual growth rate of 13% from 2014 to 2024. In the first half of 2025, the business saw a year-on-year increase of 7%, aligning with the overall growth trend in China's railway container transport [2] - Conversely, the railway freight and port logistics businesses have been experiencing a decline since 2020, attributed to decreasing freight volumes. The supply chain management business has also seen a drop in revenue and gross profit, likely due to falling commodity prices [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to the parent company of 570 million yuan, down from the previous forecast of 590 million yuan. The projected net profit for 2026 is 680 million yuan, and for 2027, it is 730 million yuan, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 16, 13, and 12 times respectively [4] - The company's revenue is projected to decline from 14.693 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.455 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of -19.67% [10] Business Segments - The special container business is expected to grow rapidly due to the increasing railway container transport volume, with the Ministry of Transport predicting an average annual growth of about 15% in container rail-water intermodal transport by 2027 [2] - The railway freight and port logistics sectors are anticipated to continue their downward trend due to ongoing economic pressures and structural changes in the economy [3] Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.36 yuan in 2023 to 0.56 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-earnings ratios decreasing from 18.75 to 12.15 over the same period [10] - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with an asset-liability ratio of 21.86% in 2025, indicating a solid financial position [6]