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宏观金融类：文字早评2025/11/13星期四-20251113
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-13 01:10
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, the hot sectors are rotating rapidly, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and the bond market is expected to recover in a volatile manner [6]. - For precious metals, in the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The gold - silver ratio still has room for further downward repair [7]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term; aluminum prices may rise further; zinc prices are short - term strong but with limited upside in the surplus cycle; lead prices are expected to be strong; nickel prices are recommended to be observed in the short term; tin prices are expected to be strong and volatile; lithium carbonate is in high - level oscillation; alumina is recommended to be observed; stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [10][12][14][17][18][21][22][24][26][28]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term but may recover in the future; iron ore prices are expected to be weak in the short term; glass prices are expected to be weak; soda ash prices are expected to be volatile; for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the short - term negative impact is a phased release, and it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities; for industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon prices are expected to be in consolidation, and polysilicon supply - demand may improve marginally [31][33][35][37][39][43][45]. - For energy and chemicals, for rubber, a neutral approach is recommended for short - term trading; for crude oil, a low - buying and high - selling strategy is maintained, and short - term observation is recommended; for methanol, it is recommended to observe; for urea, it is recommended to observe; for pure benzene and styrene, styrene prices may stop falling; for PVC, it is recommended to short on rallies; for ethylene glycol, it is recommended to short on rallies; for PTA, pay attention to the opportunity of PXN rising to drive PTA up; for p - xylene, pay attention to the mid - term valuation increase opportunity; for polyethylene, prices are expected to be in low - level oscillation; for polypropylene, prices may be supported in the first quarter of next year [50][52][53][54][57][59][61][63][65][68][70]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, the first strategy is to do reverse spreads, and then wait to short on rallies; for eggs, prices are expected to be strong in the short term; for soybean and rapeseed meal, short - term follow - up with import cost increases, and mid - term short on rallies; for oils and fats, take a volatile view and turn to a long - term view if there are signs of production decline; for sugar, wait to short after the rebound weakens; for cotton, prices are expected to be in oscillation [73][76][78][81][83][86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - Market Information: The National Energy Administration explores the construction of new water - wind - solar integration bases; the China Photovoltaic Industry Association refutes rumors; Haibo Sichuang signs a cooperation agreement with CATL; Morgan Stanley raises the target prices of Samsung and SK Hynix and predicts a rise in DRAM and NAND prices [2]. - Strategy: The market's main line is technology growth. The medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The Fed has a growing divergence on December rate cuts, and the US - EU trade tension affects European enterprises. The central bank conducted 1955 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1300 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy: The bond market is expected to recover in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter [6]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose. The retirement of the Atlanta Fed President may bring a dovish tendency. The US government is likely to reopen, which is positive for precious metals [7]. - Strategy: Go long on silver on dips, and the gold - silver ratio has room for downward repair [7]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - Market Information: Copper prices rose slightly. LME copper inventory was flat, and domestic warehouse receipts increased. The spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference declined [9]. - Strategy: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [10]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices were strong but pulled back. The weighted contract positions increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and the spot was at a discount [11]. - Strategy: Aluminum prices may rise further [12]. 3.2.3 Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices rose slightly. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and the LME inventory and registered warehouse receipts increased slightly [13]. - Strategy: Zinc prices are short - term strong but with limited upside in the surplus cycle [14]. 3.2.4 Lead - Market Information: Lead prices rose. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased continuously [16]. - Strategy: Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices fell. The spot premium was stable, the nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price fell [18]. - Strategy: Observe in the short term, and consider going long if the price drops enough [18]. 3.2.6 Tin - Market Information: Tin prices rose. The warehouse receipts decreased, the tin concentrate price rose, and the smelting plant's operating rate rebounded but remained low due to raw material shortages [19]. - Strategy: Tin prices are expected to be strong and volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: Lithium carbonate prices were in high - level oscillation. The spot index declined slightly, and the futures contract price rose slightly [22]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the high - level selling pressure, and focus on December's lithium - battery material production and the equity market atmosphere [22]. 3.2.8 Alumina - Market Information: Alumina prices rose slightly. The positions increased, the basis was at a discount, and the overseas price was stable. The futures warehouse receipts were unchanged [23]. - Strategy: Observe in the short term, and focus on supply - side policies and other factors [24]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel prices fell. The positions increased, the spot price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly [25][26]. - Strategy: Prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [26]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. The positions increased, the trading volume increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [27]. - Strategy: Prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - Market Information: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. The registered warehouse receipts decreased, and the positions decreased [30]. - Strategy: Prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term but may recover in the future [31]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Market Information: Iron ore prices rose. The positions decreased, and the spot price rose. The Simandou iron ore project was put into production [32]. - Strategy: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and pay attention to the support at 750 - 760 yuan/ton [33]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: Glass prices fell, and the inventory decreased; soda ash prices fell, and the inventory increased [34][36]. - Strategy: Glass prices are expected to be weak; soda ash prices are expected to be volatile [35][37]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: Manganese silicon prices fell slightly, and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly. Both are in the oscillation range [38]. - Strategy: The short - term negative impact is a phased release, and it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities [39]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose. Industrial silicon production increased, and polysilicon production decreased in November [42][44]. - Strategy: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be in consolidation; polysilicon supply - demand may improve marginally [43][45]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices rebounded. The 11 - month warehouse receipts are about to expire, and there are different views on the market [47][48]. - Strategy: Adopt a neutral approach for short - term trading, and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [50]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - Market Information: Crude oil and related refined product prices rose [51]. - Strategy: Maintain a low - buying and high - selling strategy, and observe in the short term [52]. 3.4.3 Methanol - Market Information: Methanol prices rose. The supply pressure increased, and the demand decreased [53]. - Strategy: Observe [53]. 3.4.4 Urea - Market Information: Urea prices rose. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [54]. - Strategy: Observe [54]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices were mixed. The supply pressure increased, and the demand decreased [55]. - Strategy: Styrene prices may stop falling [57]. 3.4.6 PVC - Market Information: PVC prices rose. The cost was stable, the supply increased, and the demand decreased [58]. - Strategy: Short on rallies [59]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [60]. - Strategy: Short on rallies [61]. 3.4.8 PTA - Market Information: PTA prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [62]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of PXN rising to drive PTA up [63]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - Market Information: p - Xylene prices rose. The supply increased, the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [64]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the mid - term valuation increase opportunity [65]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene - Market Information: Polyethylene prices rose. The supply was stable, the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [66][67]. - Strategy: Prices are expected to be in low - level oscillation [68]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene - Market Information: Polypropylene prices rose. The supply was stable, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory increased [69]. - Strategy: Prices may be supported in the first quarter of next year [70]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Live Pigs - Market Information: Pig prices fell. The demand was weak, and the supply was high [72]. - Strategy: First, do reverse spreads, and then wait to short on rallies [73][74]. 3.5.2 Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices were stable with slight declines. The supply was stable, and the demand was average [75]. - Strategy: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term [76]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Domestic soybean inventory increased, and the meal price was stable [77]. - Strategy: Short - term follow - up with import cost increases, and mid - term short on rallies [78]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - Market Information: Palm oil prices were mixed. The production increased, and the export decreased; rapeseed production was stable [79][80]. - Strategy: Take a volatile view and turn to a long - term view if there are signs of production decline [81]. 3.5.5 Sugar - Market Information: Sugar prices were in oscillation. Brazilian sugar production increased, and the global supply surplus was revised down [82]. - Strategy: Wait to short after the rebound weakens [83]. 3.5.6 Cotton - Market Information: Cotton prices were in oscillation. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [84][85]. - Strategy: Prices are expected to be in oscillation [86].