山金期货黑色板块日报-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the steel market, due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills are expected to reduce production, which may trigger a negative feedback cycle. Coal and coke prices are showing signs of weakness, and iron ore prices have fallen from their highs. Both rebar and hot-rolled coil futures prices have broken below the support of the 10-day moving average, and attention should be paid to whether they can stabilize in the future [2]. - For iron ore, the commissioning of the Simandou Iron Mine is expected to impact overall supply. Steel mills will continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. The global iron ore shipment volume has declined from its high, and port inventories have increased during the consumption peak season, putting pressure on futures prices. The futures price of the 01 contract has broken below the support of the middle - band of the Bollinger Bands and the 10 - day moving average, and attention should be paid to the support of the lower - band of the Bollinger Bands [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand: Last week, rebar's apparent demand decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled coil inventory has far exceeded the same - period level after a significant increase, and the total inventory continued to rise this week [2]. - Cost: Coking coal and coke spot prices are running strongly, providing some support for costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill profits, coal and coke prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - Technical Analysis: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices have broken below the support of the 10 - day moving average on the daily K - line chart, and currently, there is support from the lower - band of the Bollinger Bands [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down. Wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long on dips for medium - term trading. Do not short when the price is at a low level [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: The Simandou Iron Mine has been commissioned, affecting overall supply. Steel mills' iron - making output has declined, and they will continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. Global shipments have declined from their high, and port inventories have increased during the consumption peak season, suppressing futures prices [4]. - Technical Analysis: The 01 contract futures price has broken below the support of the middle - band of the Bollinger Bands and the 10 - day moving average, and currently, there is resistance from the dense trading area above. Attention should be paid to the support of the lower - band of the Bollinger Bands [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long on dips [4]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending November 12, national building materials production was 4362600 tons, a decrease of 168900 tons from the previous week; total inventory was 9545400 tons, a decrease of 196700 tons from the previous week. National hot - rolled coil production was 4114900 tons, an increase of 14600 tons from the previous week; total inventory was 4602300 tons, a decrease of 43900 tons from the previous week [6]. - On November 12, the auction prices of coking coal in the Linfen market showed mixed trends. Among the 7 reported transaction results, with a total listing of 186000 tons and a non - sale of 27000 tons, the non - sale rate was 14.5%. Two suppliers' prices increased, two decreased, and the rest remained the same [6]. - The Handan Ecological Environment Bureau announced that the Handan Heavy Pollution Weather Emergency Command decided to launch a Level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 18:00 on November 12, 2025, and it is expected to be lifted around November 16 [7].