尿素：新出口配额提振情绪

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The release of a new urea export quota of 600,000 tons on November 6th boosted the domestic urea market sentiment, with the futures price gapping up and the spot price following suit. However, the domestic urea market has been facing high supply, weak demand, high inventory, and low production profits. The export has been the only way to digest the surplus production. The increase in the quota mainly affects the short - term market trend, and the price reversal requires an improvement in domestic supply - demand [1]. - Currently, the domestic urea supply is back to a high level, with a daily output of about 200,000 tons. The demand is generally weak, with industrial demand remaining sluggish and agricultural demand ending. The overall supply - demand is still weak, the inventory is at a high level year - on - year, and the price is expected to bottom - out and fluctuate [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The daily output has recovered to around 200,000 tons, and high - level supply is one of the main reasons for the domestic surplus this year. Both coal - based and gas - based processes are in a loss state, and the rising coal price has further increased the cost of coal - based urea production. The cost support for the price will become more obvious at the current low price. Attention should be paid to enterprise production cuts and the scale of seasonal shutdown of gas - head devices in winter [6]. Demand - Industrial demand has been unable to bring incremental demand to urea due to the weak terminal market. The start - up of melamine is low, and the finished - product inventory of compound fertilizers is high. Although the start - up of compound fertilizers is gradually bottoming out and will increase seasonally, agricultural demand is in the off - season. The export policy is an important variable affecting the domestic urea market, as four batches of new export quotas this year have led to a significant year - on - year increase in exports [9].