国泰君安期货所长早读-20251113

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government shutdown crisis may end soon as the House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill, but the shutdown may reduce Q4 economic growth by two percentage points and some reports may not be released [7] - Crude oil prices may continue to decline, testing previous lows, and short positions can be held while paying attention to cross - regional spreads [8] - Silver prices are likely to rise due to inventory contradictions and macro - factors, but there may be disturbances [10] - Aluminum prices are expected to be supported by supply - demand fundamentals and valuation, with potential for an upward movement [11] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. US Government Shutdown - The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill on the evening of November 12th (Eastern Time). If it gets enough Democratic support, the 43 - day government shutdown crisis may end. The shutdown may reduce Q4 economic growth by two percentage points, and the October CPI and employment reports may not be released [7] 2. Crude Oil - After a sharp decline, oil price volatility may continue to increase, potentially testing the April lows and possibly reaching $50 per barrel. The core logics include the possible non - interruption of Russian oil supply, the potential return of the premium in the Venezuela geopolitical issue, the lack of clear benefits from the Sino - US APEC meeting, and the continuous OPEC+ production increase and seasonal inventory accumulation. Short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to cross - regional spreads [8] 3. Silver - Silver prices have risen rapidly, with the domestic price hitting a new high. Due to the inability to fundamentally resolve the global silver inventory contradiction and macro - factors such as the possible injection of liquidity after the US government re - opens, the retirement of the Atlanta Fed President who opposes a December rate cut, and stable inflation expectations, silver prices are in an upward channel, but there may be disturbances [10] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - Aluminum prices have continued to rise weekly. The positive impact of AI and power extension on the supply - demand pattern of electrolytic aluminum is gradually emerging. With a tight - balanced market, new consumption growth, and relatively lower valuation, aluminum prices are expected to rise. Short - term inventory depletion at the end of the year depends on photovoltaic production and aluminum ingot imports [11] 5. Other Commodities - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded [14] - Copper: Market sentiment has recovered, and prices have risen [14] - Zinc: Prices are in a slight oscillation [14] - Lead: Reduced overseas inventory supports prices [14] - Tin: Prices have reached the 300,000 - yuan mark [14] - Alumina: Prices are in a range - bound oscillation [14] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: Prices follow electrolytic aluminum [14] - Nickel: High inventory accumulation and risks in Indonesia are in a game, with prices in a low - level oscillation [14] - Stainless Steel: There is a lack of upward drive, and the downside space is also limited [14] - Lithium Carbonate: Prices are in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the seasonal weakening risk of power demand [14] - Industrial Silicon: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and there is strong bottom support [14] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the meeting information [14] - Iron Ore: Inventory accumulation pressure has materialized, and prices have fallen from highs [14] - Rebar: Prices are in a wide - range oscillation [14] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Prices are in a wide - range oscillation [14] - Ferrosilicon: Cost provides bottom support, and prices are in a wide - range oscillation [14] - Silicomanganese: Cost provides bottom support, and prices are in a wide - range oscillation [14] - Coke: Prices are following the downward trend [14] - Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuations are declining [14] - Logs: Prices are oscillating repeatedly [14] - PX: Aromatic oil blending supports valuation, and prices are in a high - level oscillation [14] - PTA: Demand is okay, but there is still supply pressure, and prices are in a high - level oscillation [14] - MEG: Supply pressure is large, and the trend is weak [14] - Rubber: Prices are oscillating [14] - Synthetic Rubber: There is short - term support for the oscillation [14] - Asphalt: Spot prices are weak, and prices are in a weak oscillation [14] - LLDPE: Profits in the monomer segment are compressed, and attention should be paid to import pressure [14] - PP: The trend is weak [14] - Caustic Soda: The trend is weak [14] - Pulp: Prices are oscillating [14] - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable [14] - Methanol: Prices are oscillating in the short term [14] - Urea: Prices are operating within the valuation range [14] - Styrene: Prices are oscillating in the short term [14] - Soda Ash: There are not many changes in the spot market [14] - LPG: Demand improvement is limited, and the market valuation is high [17] - Propylene: Supply - demand gap narrows, and there is short - term support [17] - PVC: There is still pressure in the trend [17] - Fuel Oil: Prices have dropped significantly and are still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil [17] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: There is a short - term pullback, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market remains high [17] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Prices are in an oscillating market [17] - Short - Fiber: Peak - season demand continues, and prices are in a short - term oscillating market [17] - Bottle Chip: Supported by upstream factors, prices are in an oscillating market [17] - Offset Printing Paper: Prices are in a low - level oscillation [17] - Pure Benzene: Overseas oil blending has started, and prices are mainly oscillating in the short term [17] - Palm Oil: The rebound height is limited, and there is a risk of a second decline [17] - Soybean Oil: US soybeans have stabilized, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil can be widened [17] - Soybean Meal: US soybeans have risen, and prices may follow and oscillate [17] - Soybean No. 1: Spot prices are stable, and the market is oscillating [17] - Corn: Prices are short - term bullish [17] - Sugar: Attention should be paid to the Indian sugar - crushing situation [17] - Cotton: There is a lack of upward drive, and prices have slightly declined [17] - Eggs: Prices are maintaining an oscillation [17] - Live Pigs: The spread between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the driving force is emerging [17] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the movements of oil mills [17]