宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures are all "oscillating", while the intraday and reference views are all "oscillating strongly". The futures prices of these three varieties are expected to run strongly in the short - term [5][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Price Trend: Short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [5] - Core Logic: Analysts expect a slight decrease in US soybean yield but a slight increase in ending stocks, reflecting weak demand. Brazilian weather disturbances and delayed South American sowing support US soybean prices. In China, the supply - demand situation is weak, with high soybean arrivals, low oil mill operating rates, and high - level inventories. Feed mills are cautious in purchasing [5] - Key Concerns: Deviations between USDA report data and expectations, the impact of South American weather on sowing, and the pace of domestic soybean meal inventory reduction [6] Soybean Oil (2601) - Price Trend: Short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [5] - Core Logic: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventories, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventories [5] Palm Oil (2601) - Price Trend: Short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [5] - Core Logic: Affected by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing country tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventories, and substitution demand. After the bearish factors of the Malaysian palm report are realized, the upward pressure on palm oil futures prices is reduced [5][7]