宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年11月13日）-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For the TL2512 variety, it is expected to experience short - term and medium - term oscillations, with a weakening trend in the intraday period, and overall it will be in an oscillatory consolidation state. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the long - term expectation of monetary policy easing still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, the macro - economic data remains resilient, and the urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is not strong, so the upward momentum of bond futures weakens. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report indicates a low possibility of short - term monetary expansion, focusing on implementing previous policies. In the long run, due to the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, the monetary policy is expected to be loose, providing strong support for bond futures. Overall, bond futures will mainly be in an oscillatory consolidation state in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, the intraday trend is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the long - term expectation of monetary policy easing still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures continued to have a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation yesterday. In the short term, the macro - economic data is resilient, reducing the urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut and weakening the upward momentum of bond futures. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report shows a low possibility of short - term monetary expansion, focusing on implementing previous policies. In the long run, due to insufficient effective domestic demand, the monetary policy is expected to be loose, providing strong support for bond futures. Overall, bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].