黄金：降息预期回升，白银：再创新高

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. It gives individual outlooks for various commodities, including bullish, bearish, and neutral views [2][5]. 2. Core Views - Precious Metals: Gold shows a rising trend due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, while silver hits a new high. Both have a trend strength of 1 [2][6]. - Base Metals: Copper prices rise as market sentiment improves; zinc shows minor fluctuations; lead prices are supported by decreasing overseas inventories; tin prices exceed 300,000 yuan; aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish; nickel is in a low - level oscillation due to high inventory and risks in Indonesia; stainless steel lacks upward momentum [2][10][13]. - Energy and Chemicals: Iron ore prices decline from high levels due to inventory accumulation; coke follows the downward trend; coking coal's valuation drops due to fluctuating supply expectations; LPG has limited demand improvement and high - valued futures; PTA and p - xylene are in a high - level oscillation; MEG is bearish due to large supply pressure [2][20][38]. - Agricultural Products: Palm oil's rebound is limited, and there is a risk of a second dip; soybean oil spreads continue to widen; corn is short - term bullish; sugar requires attention on India's sugar - crushing situation; cotton lacks upward drivers and its price slightly drops [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold's Shanghai futures contract 2512 closed at 945.76 yuan with a daily decline of 0.33%, and the overnight session closed at 963.32 yuan with a 1.78% increase. Silver's Shanghai futures contract 2512 closed at 12,073 yuan with a 1.65% increase, and the overnight session closed at 12,508 yuan with a 4.81% increase. The trend strength for both is 1 [6]. Base Metals - Copper: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 86,840 yuan with a 0.24% increase, and the overnight session closed at 87,430 yuan with a 0.68% increase. The trend strength is 1 [10]. - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,680 yuan with a 0.02% increase. The trend strength is 0 [13]. - Lead: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,660 yuan with a 1.26% increase. Overseas inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is 0 [16]. - Tin: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 292,440 yuan with a 1.48% increase. The price has exceeded 300,000 yuan. The trend strength is 1 [19]. - Aluminum and Related Products: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 1 for aluminum, 0 for alumina, and 1 for aluminum alloy [23]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel is in a low - level oscillation due to high inventory and risks in Indonesia, and stainless steel lacks upward drivers. The trend strengths are 0 for both [25]. Energy and Chemicals - Iron Ore: The futures price closed at 774 yuan with a 1.44% increase. Due to inventory accumulation, the price has declined from high levels. The trend strength is 0 [38]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke follows the downward trend, and coking coal's valuation drops due to fluctuating supply expectations. The trend strengths are - 1 for both [50]. - LPG, PTA, p - Xylene, and MEG: LPG has limited demand improvement and high - valued futures; PTA and p - xylene are in a high - level oscillation; MEG is bearish due to large supply pressure [2][56]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Palm oil's rebound is limited, and there is a risk of a second dip; soybean oil spreads continue to widen [5]. - Corn, Sugar, and Cotton: Corn is short - term bullish; sugar requires attention on India's sugar - crushing situation; cotton lacks upward drivers and its price slightly drops [2][5].